Predictions for 2011-12

Welcome to the main forum of our site. Anything and everything to do with the Vancouver Canucks is dicussed and debated here.

Moderator: Referees

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby Rumsfeld » Fri Oct 07, 2011 7:32 pm

Tell you what, find a single shred of evidence to support that statement, and then I'll debate. I've looked through playoff boxscores from the past several seasons and I disagree.


So you couldn't find any examples and you now demand that I show you one? Here's the thing: I don't need statistics to know that Luongo shit the bed in three consecutive playoffs. Neither does anyone who watched the games.

And how does looking through box scores (LOL) from the "past several seasons" have anything to do with the truth of this statement: No "all-time great" was lit up in the playoffs three seasons in a row while playing in front of one of the best defensive team in the league. Are you trying to suggest that Luongo is an all-time great, or remotely comparable to one?

Hm, ok howabout former Cup winner Antti Niemi in round 3, giving up 4.2 GAA in a 5 game loss to Vancouver? Or prior cup winner Fleury choking away a 3-1 series lead while posting a 3.14 GAA and bowing out in the first round? Since you probably aren't aware, Luongo finished the postseason, in spite of what you see as an inordinate number of blowouts, with a 2.56 GAA in 25 games. His GAA in the finals was 3.28 or so, pretty close to Fleury's.


Are you really trying to show me ONE series of stats from two goalies who WON A CUP in the last three seasons to disprove my assertion that no goalie has been shelled like Luongo in the LAST THREE PLAYOFFS? As in three in a row? Reading comprehension please. What Luongo's statistics fail to reflect is that he melted down in elimination games badly three years straight. But again, most objective viewers who actually watched the games would have ascertained that already. Luongo fluctuates from a stretch of good games to horrible games in the playoffs... and the horrible ones usually occur when it's win or go home time.

If that is your point, please make it and support it with evidence. I have looked at pre-season box scores so I know the answer, have you?


:lol: Are you actually demanding I show you evidence that Luongo looked like shit in the preseason? Really? You didn't watch any of his games, did you? Box scores. LOL. I don't put any stock in the preseason and expected Lou to get off to a shaky start like he always does, but since you want to trot out Schneider's preseason stats, I have to once again infer... you didn't watch either of Lou's preseason games. Did you.

I admit, I am a fan and I am biased. And you can probably tell, I could write puff pieces on Luongo all season long that are supported by stats that I cherry-pick.


Agreed.

My problem is, Luongo detractors never rely on stats or evidence and discard all opinions that run counter to their own as blind fanboyism.


No, but they often rely on common sense to come to the conclusion that Luongo doesn't get it done in big games. I don't need to look up Lou's stats in elimination games over the last three years to know that he has struggled.

What it really comes down to is this: you are apparently satisfied with Luongo's performance in the playoffs over the last three seasons. Otherwise there is nothing to argue here. I, and the majority of most fans and experts, am not satisfied. If Lou's performance has been good enough for you, great. I have never claimed Luongo isn't a very good goalie. I have asserted that he is a shitty playoff goalie who, despite playing in front of great teams, has failed to deliver when it really matters.
Cowards die a thousand times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once.
User avatar
Rumsfeld
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2632
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:48 pm
Location: Pissed in the Canyon

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby ESQ » Fri Oct 07, 2011 10:36 pm

I admit, I am a fan and I am biased. And you can probably tell, I could write puff pieces on Luongo all season long that are supported by stats that I cherry-pick.



Agreed.


The irony of course, which is apparently lost on you, being that while I can at least cherry pick stats to support my argument, you either can not or will not.

I don't need to look up Lou's stats in elimination games over the last three years to know that he has struggled.

Allow me to then. Going back to 2008/2009, Luongo has played in 8 elimination games including Olympics. He has gone 5-3, allowing 26 goals, for an average of 3.25 (actually, 2 of those games were OT, so the GAA is slightly better than 3.25). In the 2011 playoffs, Luongo's GAA in elimination games was 2.5, roughly the same as his career postseason GAA.

In the past 3 years, goals scored by those other 18 guys on the ice that make up the team in elimination games is 11 in 5 games, or 2.2 goals per game. In the 2011 playoffs, goals scored by a Canuck not named Burrows in elimination games is 0 in 2 games.

There were only 3 games in the Finals that were remotely close - Luongo won them all. In Luongo's 3 wins, those 18 other guys only managed 5 goals, which suggests to me that in fact Luongo stole those games and, on the basis of two 1-0 shutout victories, is the only reason that series went 7 games.

Sometimes you need to think critically about what the media is presenting and do your own research. I've noticed that you use media and experts interchangeably. I'm of the opinion that the two are mutually exclusive - if they were experts, they'd have a meaningful career in the industry.

If you feel Luongo is at fault for the Canucks losing the Finals, that's great. If you feel Luongo lost the Canucks game 7 (in which the 18 other Canuck players failed to score a single goal), that's great too. I believe that the entire team plays shitty in elimination games, that Luongo and Burrows are responsible for them even advancing out of the first round, and that he outplayed every goalie he faced up until Thomas.

Are you actually demanding I show you evidence that Luongo looked like shit in the preseason? Really? You didn't watch any of his games, did you? Box scores. LOL. I don't put any stock in the preseason and expected Lou to get off to a shaky start like he always does, but since you want to trot out Schneider's preseason stats, I have to once again infer... you didn't watch either of Lou's preseason games. Did you.


The reason I asked you to provide the stats was because I knew they would prove my point, and I was inviting you to save face. Again, since its apparent you don't like to read, allow me to do it for you.

Schneider's GAA in 3 (really 2.5) preseason games: 6 [3 in 30 minutes] + 4 + 3 = 4.33 GAA
Luongo's GAA in 2 preseason games: 3 + 1 = 2.00 GAA
Schneider's SV%: .850, .826, .917 = .864 SV%
Luongo's SV%: .864, .966 = .915 SV%

I saw more of Schneider's games than Luongo's, and he did not look good. But hey, if the team starts losing lets just bench the best goalie since the lockout and put Schneider in! :roll:

p.s. if there is anymore Luongo talk, lets just start a dedicated thread.
ESQ
CC 1st Team All-Star
 
Posts: 694
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:34 pm

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby dhabums » Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:10 pm

ESQ wrote:[
There were only 3 games in the Finals that were remotely close - Luongo won them all. In Luongo's 3 wins, those 18 other guys only managed 5 goals, which suggests to me that in fact Luongo stole those games and, on the basis of two 1-0 shutout victories, is the only reason that series went 7 games.


Maybe there would have been 7 close games if......
User avatar
dhabums
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:55 pm

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby ESQ » Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:12 pm

dhabums wrote:Maybe there would have been 7 close games if......


...if the Canucks had scored more than 8 goals in 7 games? Is that where you were going? :P

Tell me this: who then was the Canucks best player in the Finals? God that's a depressing thought.
ESQ
CC 1st Team All-Star
 
Posts: 694
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:34 pm

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby dhabums » Fri Oct 07, 2011 11:25 pm

ESQ wrote:
dhabums wrote:Maybe there would have been 7 close games if......


...if the Canucks had scored more than 8 goals in 7 games? Is that where you were going? :P

Tell me this: who then was the Canucks best player in the Finals? God that's a depressing thought.


I guess I was going for "if he wasn't the 2nd best goalie in the series."

You can post all the statistics you want, if they convince you to believe what you want to believe then congratulations. That's all you really need to worry about. 3 great games and 4 awful ones isn't a recipe for playoff success. I really don't think the discussion is nearly that simple though.

The other players are irrelevant, this is about Luongo. It doesn't matter how bad Ryan Kesler plays one night, that should not make a routine save impossible to stop in the biggest series of your life. It happens far too often and I think last nights game just brought up some memories for fans. I don't have a stat for that though.

He is a great regular season goalie who becomes just another playoff goalie. IMO, he has never won this team a series that it shouldn't have won. The Dallas series probably could be argued, but holy crap that was a long, long time ago.
User avatar
dhabums
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:55 pm

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby Rumsfeld » Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:29 am

Allow me to then. Going back to 2008/2009, Luongo has played in 8 elimination games including Olympics.


Seriously. The OIympics are part of this discussion now? Why would you include those games when they have NO relevance to this discussion and have not once been brought up by anybody?

for an average of 3.25


That's a sparkling GAA... including Olympics. LOL.

In the 2011 playoffs, goals scored by a Canuck not named Burrows in elimination games is 0 in 2 games.


Again, what does that have to do with anything. This feels desperate.

There were only 3 games in the Finals that were remotely close - Luongo won them all.


Yes, let's forget about why the other games weren't close.

I don't think Luongo was the main reason we lost in the Final. I think injuries were. I think Luongo was A reason we didn't win in the Final, and regardless of how everyone else was playing Lou didn't make saves.

Sometimes you need to think critically about what the media is presenting and do your own research. I've noticed that you use media and experts interchangeably. I'm of the opinion that the two are mutually exclusive - if they were experts, they'd have a meaningful career in the industry
.

Oh, that's helpful. If it weren't for the media telling me not to like Luongo I would have been delighted with his past three playoffs.

and that he outplayed every goalie he faced up until Thomas.


If you actually believe this, I don't know what to tell you. Crawford had a .927 save percentage with 16 GA and a 2.21 GAA. Luongo gave up 12 (or 13?) goals in just two games in that series. I'm sure you are privy to his numbers against the Hawks. I'm not going to waste my time digging them up, but why don't you go ahead. Since stats are all that matter to you, how do Luongo's match up to Crawford's? (keep in mind Lou played one fewer game).The Hawks had no depth and still came within a c-hair of beating us. Crawford was better than Luongo in that series. The Canucks had a vastly deeper team but were, IIRC, badly outscored.

The Predators group of forwards is a joke and yet Rinne kept them in every single game. Luongo was good in that series but Rinne was better. He literally stood on his head on a regular basis as the Canucks had a ton more grade-A chances than the Preds. Luongo was still good for his one stinker per game benchmark in that series. If Luongo and Rinne had switched teams for that series I have a feeling the games wouldn't have been close at all... but I don't have any stats to convince you with. The fact that the Preds were badly outshot and outchanced and still could have won every game makes me give the nod to Rinne.

Luongo outplayed Niemi for sure.

Thomas made Luongo look like a Junior B goalie. But I will admit that he would have outplayed any goaltender the way he was going -- just not in as humiliating a fashion.

In fact, I am firmly of the belief that Luongo has been outplayed by his counterpart in five of the last seven playoff series he has played. Quick and Niemi are the only two goaltenders he has outduelled since our first showdown with the Hawks. Not exactly confidence-inspiring. Luckily he IS the "best (regular season) goalie since the lockout".

Schneider's GAA in 3 (really 2.5) preseason games: 6 [3 in 30 minutes] + 4 + 3 = 4.33 GAA
Luongo's GAA in 2 preseason games: 3 + 1 = 2.00 GAA
Schneider's SV%: .850, .826, .917 = .864 SV%
Luongo's SV%: .864, .966 = .915 SV%

I saw more of Schneider's games than Luongo's, and he did not look good.


And this is why nobody cares about your silly stats. If you had watched Lou play in the preseason you'd realize that he was badly outplayed by Hiller and gave up two game-losing stinkers in a game where we carried the play. You'd also realize that Luongo played behind our vets and Schneider played behind an AHL team.

The notion that hardcore fans such as the ones that frequent this board need cherry-picked statistics to come to their own conclusions about games they watched three months ago is mildly insulting.

Again, I would ask you: Are you satified with Luongo's performance in the last three playoffs?

It appears that you are, and so I tire of this circular debate. Your entire argument is based around numbers which tell a very small part of the story, and this could go on forever. My belief is that if (when?) Luongo falters this playoffs we should put Schneider in and let him run with it, and no amount of number-crunching is going to change my mind.

The good news is that our team is still very good and I expect Lou will be able to get us back to the dance with another division title and home ice in the first round. I just hope the leash is a lot shorter this time around.
Cowards die a thousand times before their deaths; the valiant never taste of death but once.
User avatar
Rumsfeld
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2632
Joined: Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:48 pm
Location: Pissed in the Canyon

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby ukcanuck » Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:01 am

Rumsfeld wrote:
It appears that you are, and so I tire of this circular debate. Your entire argument is based around numbers which tell a very small part of the story, and this could go on forever. My belief is that if (when?) Luongo falters this playoffs we should put Schneider in and let him run with it, and no amount of number-crunching is going to change my mind.


Not even going try to enter this debate on whether Luongo statistically shit the bed or whether one even needs stats to show the stains, the bigger question is getting Ginger enough games to be ready to go in for Luongo in the playoffs, IF we get there.

I am afraid the reason Luongo craps out in pressure situations is his massive contract and his pride and ego. he has to be number one it says so right on his jersey. Im not saying he isnt a team guy but what if getting the back up enough reps to replace him when it counts results in a unhealthy room and division on the team?

I guess I am hoping the humiliation in the final has shown him he can't do it alone and he can accept in his dreams winning the cup on the bench as the buzzer goes, because for him to get past this hurdle that might be what it takes...
User avatar
ukcanuck
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2429
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:04 am

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby RoyalDude » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:17 am

Rumsfeld wrote:
Tell you what, find a single shred of evidence to support that statement, and then I'll debate. I've looked through playoff boxscores from the past several seasons and I disagree.


So you couldn't find any examples and you now demand that I show you one? Here's the thing: I don't need statistics to know that Luongo shit the bed in three consecutive playoffs. Neither does anyone who watched the games.

And how does looking through box scores (LOL) from the "past several seasons" have anything to do with the truth of this statement: No "all-time great" was lit up in the playoffs three seasons in a row while playing in front of one of the best defensive team in the league. Are you trying to suggest that Luongo is an all-time great, or remotely comparable to one?

Hm, ok howabout former Cup winner Antti Niemi in round 3, giving up 4.2 GAA in a 5 game loss to Vancouver? Or prior cup winner Fleury choking away a 3-1 series lead while posting a 3.14 GAA and bowing out in the first round? Since you probably aren't aware, Luongo finished the postseason, in spite of what you see as an inordinate number of blowouts, with a 2.56 GAA in 25 games. His GAA in the finals was 3.28 or so, pretty close to Fleury's.


Are you really trying to show me ONE series of stats from two goalies who WON A CUP in the last three seasons to disprove my assertion that no goalie has been shelled like Luongo in the LAST THREE PLAYOFFS? As in three in a row? Reading comprehension please. What Luongo's statistics fail to reflect is that he melted down in elimination games badly three years straight. But again, most objective viewers who actually watched the games would have ascertained that already. Luongo fluctuates from a stretch of good games to horrible games in the playoffs... and the horrible ones usually occur when it's win or go home time.

If that is your point, please make it and support it with evidence. I have looked at pre-season box scores so I know the answer, have you?


:lol: Are you actually demanding I show you evidence that Luongo looked like shit in the preseason? Really? You didn't watch any of his games, did you? Box scores. LOL. I don't put any stock in the preseason and expected Lou to get off to a shaky start like he always does, but since you want to trot out Schneider's preseason stats, I have to once again infer... you didn't watch either of Lou's preseason games. Did you.

I admit, I am a fan and I am biased. And you can probably tell, I could write puff pieces on Luongo all season long that are supported by stats that I cherry-pick.


Agreed.

My problem is, Luongo detractors never rely on stats or evidence and discard all opinions that run counter to their own as blind fanboyism.


No, but they often rely on common sense to come to the conclusion that Luongo doesn't get it done in big games. I don't need to look up Lou's stats in elimination games over the last three years to know that he has struggled.

What it really comes down to is this: you are apparently satisfied with Luongo's performance in the playoffs over the last three seasons. Otherwise there is nothing to argue here. I, and the majority of most fans and experts, am not satisfied. If Lou's performance has been good enough for you, great. I have never claimed Luongo isn't a very good goalie. I have asserted that he is a shitty playoff goalie who, despite playing in front of great teams, has failed to deliver when it really matters.


LOL. Fuck, you're a beaut, Rumsfeld.
"I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? - Plastics." - The Graduate
User avatar
RoyalDude
CC Legend
 
Posts: 4513
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:36 pm
Location: Vancouver

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby rats19 » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:27 am

The problem with this argument is......both sides are right, how does an argument get won when both sides are right? Boiling down to the individuals oponion..

And rd, really.....
You are who you hang with.....
User avatar
rats19
Moderator & MVP
Moderator & MVP
 
Posts: 4723
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2011 7:21 am
Location: over there.....

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby Eddy Punch Clock » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:28 am

ukcanuck wrote:Not even going try to enter this debate on whether Luongo statistically shit the bed or whether one even needs stats to show the stains, the bigger question is getting Ginger enough games to be ready to go in for Luongo in the playoffs, IF we get there.


:shock:

Given our division, the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the Aqua man buys the team a used private jet from Russia.
2011..... the one that got away.
User avatar
Eddy Punch Clock
CC 1st Team All-Star
 
Posts: 964
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:35 am
Location: The Wack

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby dhabums » Sat Oct 08, 2011 9:39 am

Eddy Punch Clock wrote:
ukcanuck wrote:Not even going try to enter this debate on whether Luongo statistically shit the bed or whether one even needs stats to show the stains, the bigger question is getting Ginger enough games to be ready to go in for Luongo in the playoffs, IF we get there.


:shock:

Given our division, the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the Aqua man buys the team a used private jet from Russia.



Or if Dan and Hank become depressed scrappers.
User avatar
dhabums
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 1291
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 7:55 pm

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby ukcanuck » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:14 am

Eddy Punch Clock wrote:
ukcanuck wrote:Not even going try to enter this debate on whether Luongo statistically shit the bed or whether one even needs stats to show the stains, the bigger question is getting Ginger enough games to be ready to go in for Luongo in the playoffs, IF we get there.


:shock:

Given our division, the only way we don't make the playoffs is if the Aqua man buys the team a used private jet from Russia.

lol lets hope Aquaman can manage better than that! I'm sure you are right but its rarely safe to assume with the hard luck Canucks
User avatar
ukcanuck
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2429
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:04 am

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby Eddy Punch Clock » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:09 am

ukcanuck wrote:lol lets hope Aquaman can manage better than that! I'm sure you are right but its rarely safe to assume with the hard luck Canucks


I was only joking a couple of years ago when I asked people "Would you actually get on a plane with Salo, Demitra and Rypien?" :(
2011..... the one that got away.
User avatar
Eddy Punch Clock
CC 1st Team All-Star
 
Posts: 964
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:35 am
Location: The Wack

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby ukcanuck » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:18 am

Eddy Punch Clock wrote:
ukcanuck wrote:lol lets hope Aquaman can manage better than that! I'm sure you are right but its rarely safe to assume with the hard luck Canucks


I was only joking a couple of years ago when I asked people "Would you actually get on a plane with Salo, Demitra and Rypien?" :(


ouch :?
User avatar
ukcanuck
CC Hall of Fan Member
 
Posts: 2429
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:04 am

Re: Predictions for 2011-12

Postby Scintillator » Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:29 pm

Rumsfeld wrote:
Luongo fluctuates from a stretch of good games to horrible games in the playoffs... and the horrible ones usually occur when it's win or go home time.


Sad, but empirically true. :(

Wonder how one would express that as a statistic... it's really the difference between good and great.

How long will it be until GMMG + AV grok that it's fast becoming ginger time? My guess is it'll be a year or two before they can bring themselves to admit #1 can't get over the hump. Gonna be frustrating during the playoffs until then...
Scintillator
CC Veteran
 
Posts: 82
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2011 12:12 am

PreviousNext

Return to Canucks Corner Chat

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests