Round 1&2&3 Prediction thread

[Cornuck]

[dr.dork]

'nucks in 6.
Sharks in 5
'yotes in 7
Preds in 6

Caps in 5
Sabres in 7
Bruins in 5
Tampa in 6

And I don't care (at all) if I am one for eight as long as the 'nucks just beat Chicago.

[Cornuck]

Canucks in 5
Sharks in 5 (Kings won't last long without Kopitar)
Wings in 6 (Detroit just knows how to win once the 2nd season starts)
Ducks in 7 (Preds don't know how to win once the 2nd season starts)

This will make for some real battles in the 2nd round.

Caps in 5 (Rangers suck)
Philly in 6
Montreal in 7 (this should be a great series to watch)
Penguins in 5

[West Coast Jets Fan]

Canucks in 5
San Jose in 5
Detroit in 6
Nashville in 7

Rangers in 7
Philadelphia in 4
Bruins in 4
Tampa Bay in 7

[Madcombinepilot]

Canucks in 6
Kings in 7
Wings in 5
Ducks in 4

Caps in 6
Flyers in 5
Bruins in 5
Lightning in 6

[Linden Is God]

WEST

Canucks in 6
Sharks in 5
Wings in 6
Ducks in 6



EAST

Rangers in 7
Philly in 5
Bruins in 5 (although I'm cheering for the Habs. Bruins just made them look like boys last game)
TBay in 7

[woodhog]

Canucks in 6
Sharks in 5
Wings in 6
Preds in 7

Caps in 5
Sabres in 6
Bruins in 5
Lightning in 7

[Kel]

I am interested in recording everyone's prediction and record for all the rounds, and I'll try to give different scoring schemes.

First scheme: Correct team picked 1 point, otherwise 0.
Second scheme: Correct team picked 1 point, 1 bonus point for correct number of games if correct team is picked.
Third scheme: This is the most complicated, but I think is more accurate and fairer. Each series has a finite range of outcome, from higher seed winning in 4 games to lower seed winning in 4 games. To be precise, there are 8 possible outcomes. My thinking is that the closer your prediction is to that outcome, the more points you should get. So you get 8 points (including one bonus point) if you are right on the mark, 6 points if you are one game off in the range, 5 points if you are two games off, etc. In the extreme case, you get 0 point if you predict team A to win in 4 games and team A lost in 4 games.

I'll record the scores for all 3 schemes at the end of each round. Post your prediction in this thread if you want to see how well you are doing relatively. Sorry, no prize is offered. Now my prediction:

Canucks in 5
Sharks in 4
Wings in 5
Preds in 7

Caps in 5
Flyers in 6
Bruins in 5
Pens in 7

[dr.dork]

Third scheme: This is the most complicated, but I think is more accurate and fairer. Each series has a finite range of outcome, from higher seed winning in 4 games to lower seed winning in 4 games. To be precise, there are 8 possible outcomes. My thinking is that the closer your prediction is to that outcome, the more points you should get. So you get 8 points (including one bonus point) if you are right on the mark, 6 points if you are one game off in the range, 5 points if you are two games off, etc. In the extreme case, you get 0 point if you predict team A to win in 4 games and team A lost in 4 games.

I like this scheme, but I have some nits to pick.

If someone takes team A to win in 6, and someone else takes team B to win in 7, but team A wins in 7, they would each get six points ? You are one away in each case right ? But you got 6 points for picking the wrong team ? Somehow that doesn't seem fair, although I agree you should get something for being "closer" than someone who called team B to win in 7.

I like the general idea, but I would give 2 (or even 3) bonus points for being "on the mark" (getting it completely correct) and two bonus points for the correct team winning (or a penalty of -1 or -2 for not getting the right team). Seems to end up with a higher weight for getting the "right" team.

In other words, in the scenario above with the modification in point 2, the first person would get:

6 (one away) + 2 (correct team) = 8.

and the second person would get:

6 (one away).

And getting the prediction bang on would be a nice round 7+2+2=11 points.

Of course it is your scheme and it isn't that bad the way it is... but it does seem to favour "picking in the middle" (I think).

[Kel]

I like the general idea, but I would give 2 (or even 3) bonus points for being "on the mark" (getting it completely correct) and two bonus points for the correct team winning (or a penalty of -1 or -2 for not getting the right team). Seems to end up with a higher weight for getting the "right" team.

In other words, in the scenario above with the modification in point 2, the first person would get:

6 (one away) + 2 (correct team) = 8.

and the second person would get:

6 (one away).

And getting the prediction bang on would be a nice round 7+2+2=11 points.

Of course it is your scheme and it isn't that bad the way it is... but it does seem to favour "picking in the middle" (I think).

I agree that there should be some bonus for picking the right team. Maybe 10 points for a perfect prediction, and 2 extra points for correct team. So, the maximum number of points you can get for picking the wrong team is 6, and you get from 6 to 8 points if you get the right team but not the number of games, and 10 points for being right on the mark. You are getting 2 extra points in effect for being perfect and the number looks nicer (because maximum is 10)

[the toucan kid]

Canucks in 4
Sharks in 6
Wings in 5
Ducks in 5

Capitals in 6
Flyers in 6
Bruins in 5
Lightning in 7

[nucklehead_88]

Canucks in 6
Sharks in 5
Wings in 6
Preds in 7

Rangers in 6
Flyers in 5
Canadiens in 7
Lightning in 4

[Kel]

I've entered the picks so far into the spreadsheet. This is the average pick for each series in a scale of 1 to 8, with 1 being most favourable to the higher seed (win in 4) and 8 the least (lose in 4)

Van-Chi: 2.44
SJ-LA: 2.33
Det-Phx: 2.89
Ana-Nsh: 4.00
Was-NYR: 3.33
Phi-Buf: 3.00
Bos-Mtl: 2.56
Pit-TB: 5.11

The SJ-LA is viewed as the most lopsided for the higher seed, followed by Bos-Mtl. Seven out of nine picks predict TB over Pit, the only series where the average pick points to an upset, but the Ana-Nsh one (4.0) is close and right on the cutoff. No surprise given that those are the 4th-vs-5th matchups.

[Arbour]

Canucks in 6 Caps in 7
Sharks in 6 Flyers in 6
Coyotes in 7 Bruins in 7
Preds in 7 Penguins in 7

[Island Nucklehead]

Canucks in 6
Sharks in 5
Wings in 5
Ducks in 7

Caps in 6
Flyers in 4
Boston in 5
Pens in 7