Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

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Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by ClamRussel » Tue Jun 01, 2010 10:11 am

I was thinking about recent Cup Champions....and with the exception of Detroit (some extremely fortunate drafting in late rounds) every team that has won has blown for extended periods and racked up top draft picks.

Tampa Bay....drafted 7, 1, 8 & 3rd
Carolina.... drafted 2, 3 & 4th
Anaheim....drafted 12, 5, 7, 19, 9 & 2nd
Pittsburgh.... 5, 1, 2, 1 & 2nd

The pattern is there. Constantly being just good enough to make it to the 2nd round is great for selling out games but does little to win the big prize. Also going crazy with UFAs and throwing money at the problem does little to build a winner. Adding some key vets via trade or UFA does work when you've already got the fundamental building blocks in place, in fact it is essential.

dare I point out....Chicago.....drafted 14, 3, 7, 3, 1 & 11th *groan*
v. Philadelphia....drafted 24, 29, 22, 2 & 19th

just sayin'
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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Cornuck » Tue Jun 01, 2010 10:37 am

I don't know about the only way, but it could be the best odds. You can add LA to your list - they'll be moving up - maybe not Cup winners, but contenders.

The other part is good management. Look at Florida, the Islanders, etc. Some teams just suck and continue to suck.

I've said before that Vancouver is too secure in it's sellout and giant bandwagon to blow up the team and suck for 4-5 years to test this theory out. If you were an owner, would you risk it? Recently we've drafted well, but had some horrible luck. Luc or course, and now possibly Hodgson. If those two were playing to full potential next year, we'd have a much better shot.
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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Island Nucklehead » Tue Jun 01, 2010 10:54 am

Cornuck wrote: I've said before that Vancouver is too secure in it's sellout and giant bandwagon to blow up the team and suck for 4-5 years to test this theory out. If you were an owner, would you risk it? Recently we've drafted well, but had some horrible luck. Luc or course, and now possibly Hodgson. If those two were playing to full potential next year, we'd have a much better shot.
Are we so sure?

We've had top ten picks like Allen, the Sedins, Bourdon, Hodgson all in the last 12 years or so. It's a shame our period of high-drafting (late 90s) wasn't the early 2000's or more recent, but that's the cards we were dealt.

In reality, most of our team has been built by the Canucks and most of that through the draft (Sedin, Sedin, Kesler, Burrows, Raymond, Edler, Bieksa etc. are all drafted or original signings by the Canucks). The team that we have is still competitive enough against most teams in the league.

So basically... yes and no. The only reason we're so good is because we sucked to get the Sedins. However a good chunk of our current team was drafted later first-round and later rounds.

I think in reality you have to have smart drafting, regardless of rank or round, to be successful. Taking a DiPietro over a Heatley/Gaborik high, or M.A. Pouliot over a Ryan Kesler later in the first, will both set franchises back equally bad.

Smart drafting, and some luck.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Larry Goodenough » Tue Jun 01, 2010 1:52 pm

What bothers me the most is Chicago basically quit for about a decade - now they're reaping the rewards of quiting. And instead of the media questioning the dubious means in which Chicago has resurrected themselves as a franchise, they gush about the "great management". BS

To perhaps curb the quiting or sucking, why does the league not institute a reverse draft order for the 2nd, 4th and 6th rounds? We've all been doing it in our hockey pools for years, why should the teams that ice a competitive team not be rewarded with a higher draft pick in the second round?

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Island Nucklehead » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:33 pm

I'd prefer to see all the non-playoff teams thrown into a lottery, with maybe a slight advantage to the worst teams, but not the level we see now. Do away with the minimum drop and maximum jump.

I think they have to do away with the notions that teams can "Fall for Hall".

Remember how intense the Crosby sweepstakes were? Imagine if that was held every year, but with better odds for everyone involved.

Say the worst team gets a 14%, then 13%, then 12%, then 11%, then every team from 5-14 gets a 5%. Where you get picked is where you draft, with the order revealed in reverse order for the TV audience. So the worst team still has the best shot amongst all, but not a good enough shot that sucking for several years is a real option.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by the toucan kid » Tue Jun 01, 2010 2:34 pm

What bothers me the most is Chicago basically quit for about a decade - now they're reaping the rewards of quiting.
They didn't quit, just many of their big prospects more or less busted like Arnason, Bell and Ruutu, who at one point looked to be the basis of a good young core going forward - until they started playing.
To perhaps curb the quiting or sucking, why does the league not institute a reverse draft order for the 2nd, 4th and 6th rounds? We've all been doing it in our hockey pools for years, why should the teams that ice a competitive team not be rewarded with a higher draft pick in the second round?
It's not in the league's interest to make it tougher for teams to turn it around. They quite want at least a partial rotation of who is good and who isn't.

And of course, we wouldn't be suggesting it if we were at the bottom - something we all know about.

Frankly, because we've taken an unusual (not to say unprecedented) route to trying to cobble together a contender, of course we're going to object to the dispersal of franchise stars amongst the cretins of the hockey world, but we wouldn't have the same view if we were in their place.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Todd Bersnoozi » Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:55 pm

Yeah, It's not the only way, but it's the best way in my opinion. Detroit is an exception, they usually finish pretty high in the standings and they ice a contender almost every year. But yeah, the Canucks had some bad years, but they usually don't finish as the bottom feeders to get the top pick with players like Crosby, Ovi, Malkin. They usually finish with a later top 10 pick, so they don't get that blue chip prospect.

I fear the Canucks are caught in a bit of a cycle. They usually ice a decent team that can fight for a playoff spot, but don't have the horses to go all the way. They end up with a mid-late round pick, so they get a bunch of average prospects who just don't have what it takes to push the team over the top.

Looking @ Chicago and Pittsburgh. They re-built their teams through the draft really quick. They suck for about 2-3 years, get a whole bunch of top prospects and they become almost instant legitimate Cup contenders.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Farhan Lalji » Tue Jun 01, 2010 7:20 pm

Yes and no.

Keep in mind however - that for every Tampa Bay, Chicago, Pitsburgh, and Washington that we saw, you often see far more Florida's, Phoenix', Atlanta's, Toronto's, NYI's, St. Louis', and Edmonton's.

And really - think about it. Do you really want to see a team suck for soooo many years, only to then have 2...maybe 3 really good years? Who knows how good Chicago will be for the long term. A few years ago, we saw the Anaheim Ducks win the cup after sucking for so many years...and they started to decline once again soon afterwards. Ditto for Tampa Bay. We saw what happened to Edmonton after 2006.

Ask Washington how it feels to suck for soooo many years....only to then put together a solid team and grossly underachieve come playoff time.

Farhan's opinion: Canucks are on the right track. At the very worst, the Canucks are a perennial 2nd round calibre team that constantly generates a high net-to-gross income year-in and year-out. At best - the Canucks cause an upset and get to the 3rd or 4th round...and dare I say, win the cup.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Broda » Tue Jun 01, 2010 9:42 pm

yeah i think the reality is that winning the stanley cup is a considerably hard thing to do. I understand everyones dismay of going to the second round and being knocked out by the blackhawks again but really is getting a new GM when everything seemed quite messed up two years ago and going to the second round twice really that bad. I understand the idea of patience is short for alot of us here. But lets be honest the Canucks have only been an upper echelon club for the last ten years. Basically since Burke came in and set the president. This team is definitely going in the right direction and only time will tell if this window given by Mike Gillis and his crew will have enough to win the cup. I think this team is in a very good position moving forward. With the way the contracts are set up i think the next three years could be very interesting for this hockey club.

The other big factor is staying healthy and everyone hitting their stride as a team come playoff time. I'm still confident that the canucks could have beat the hawks this year and last if a couple more guys weren't so beat up and things clicked a bit more.

There is only one cup in this league of 30 teams. Its what you have to deal with as a fan.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by ClamRussel » Tue Jun 01, 2010 9:50 pm

Cornuck wrote:I don't know about the only way, but it could be the best odds. You can add LA to your list - they'll be moving up - maybe not Cup winners, but contenders.

The other part is good management. Look at Florida, the Islanders, etc. Some teams just suck and continue to suck.
Good point, LA and Wash as well are great examples and will probably each win a Cup within the next 4-5yrs if not sooner.

Good management yes but also luck as its the later rounds in the draft that can really round a team out. Come to think of it, even if the Canucks sucked bad they'd probably find a way to screw up their drafting and still end up underachieving come go time. Its happened time & time again.

Look at Colorado's success after finishing last an NHL record THREE times in a row and in an 8 year period had ELEVEN top 15 picks....even then they managed to screw up at least 1/3 of them. Nevertheless, hoarding all those top prospects put them in the position to make the necessary trades and start winning Cups....lucky for the fans of Colorado and a bitter pill for the Quebec fans who had to put up w/ all those brutal seasons.
Larry Goodenough wrote:What bothers me the most is Chicago basically quit for about a decade - now they're reaping the rewards of quiting. And instead of the media questioning the dubious means in which Chicago has resurrected themselves as a franchise, they gush about the "great management". BS
Couldn't agree more, if I hear the TEAM guys gushing over Rocky Wirtz one more time I'm gonna puke. The success of that team is not because he put them on TV or that Bill is dead....its because those young players have panned out and they've got a great team. The fans didn't stay away because they weren't on the tube....they stayed away because they were losers on the ice. Lets see how attendance is when they go through another down turn. Rocky getting all these accolades is akin to a politician getting elected just as the economy is on the upswing, sure he looks like a hero when the goings good.
Broda wrote:There is only one cup in this league of 30 teams. Its what you have to deal with as a fan.
I've long said the exact same thing. Its what makes all these coach firings & overreacting so laughable. Fact is if you had 30 teams as good as the '70s Habs or '80s Oilers & Islanders you'd still only have one Cup winner and 14 of those teams would be missing the dance.
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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by trouble » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:15 pm

Island Nucklehead wrote:I'd prefer to see all the non-playoff teams thrown into a lottery, with maybe a slight advantage to the worst teams, but not the level we see now. Do away with the minimum drop and maximum jump.
Why should teams get a bonus for sucking or teams get punished for having a good season

Throw 30 teams names in a hat and pull them one at a time and the lucky team gets the first pick and so on then reverse the order for the second round and so on.

Teams would be hanging on to their draft picks cause they could be a top ten pick

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Island Nucklehead » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:27 pm

trouble wrote: Why should teams get a bonus for sucking or teams get punished for having a good season
Well there has to be some kind of system in place to distribute new talent. The "fairest" of this is where the worst team picks first. I'm not opposed to the reverse-order thing for round two.... but the teams near the end of the standings (non-playoff teams) should be given the chance to improve themselves, to at least give them a chance in a year or two.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Larry Goodenough » Wed Jun 02, 2010 2:27 pm

the toucan kid wrote:
What bothers me the most is Chicago basically quit for about a decade - now they're reaping the rewards of quiting.
They didn't quit, just many of their big prospects more or less busted like Arnason, Bell and Ruutu, who at one point looked to be the basis of a good young core going forward - until they started playing.

The Blackhawks' salary in 03-04 (before the lockout) was 25th in the league.

Coming out of the lockout in 05-06, they actually spent less than the previous season and were 24th in the league in salary. They spent 30.1 million when the cap was 39 million.

In 07-08, their salary was 34.8 m while the cap was at 50 million. Only Columbus and Nashville spent less on players.

This from a team playing in the 3rd largest city in North America. A traditional hockey city, an original six team with a strong and passionate fan base.

Trust me, they quit.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by the toucan kid » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:28 pm

The Blackhawks' salary in 03-04 (before the lockout) was 25th in the league.

Coming out of the lockout in 05-06, they actually spent less than the previous season and were 24th in the league in salary. They spent 30.1 million when the cap was 39 million.

In 07-08, their salary was 34.8 m while the cap was at 50 million. Only Columbus and Nashville spent less on players.

This from a team playing in the 3rd largest city in North America. A traditional hockey city, an original six team with a strong and passionate fan base.

Trust me, they quit.
Not really indicative, they were attempting to rebuild and therefore salaries were lower. Yes, any Hawks fan will tell you about the cheapness of the much maligned and little mourned former owner, but they had an entire core of young players flop completely. So, effectively they went through two (arguably three) cycles without any success, but it wasn't one long dormancy.

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Re: Is Sucking Really the Only Way to Get Ahead?

Post by Tciso » Thu Jun 03, 2010 11:51 am

Sucking is only a small piece of the puzzle, and it is even less important with the new salary cap. The salary cap brings in a certain level of parity, and the current draft system adds some more. But, it is the other off-ice intangibles that are way more important. I rank scouting, coaching, player development, avoiding retarded contracts, injuries, biased reffing and Bettman as all bigger pieces of the puzzle than the draft and sucking to get an elite blue chip prospect.

If Chicago wins, just watch them implode in the next 2-3 years as players demand more $$, and they are forced to trade talent away, or lose it to RFA.
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