Making Big Moves at Deadline not always Smart

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mattola
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Making Big Moves at Deadline not always Smart

Post by mattola »

Forsberg to Nashville gets 1 Win in a series
Guerin and Rivet to San Jose gets 1 series win
Tkachunk and Zhitnek to Atlanta gets a playoffs appearance with ZERO wins
Nagy to Dallas gets a 1st round loss
Ryan Smyth to NYI gets 1 win
Roberts to Penguins gets 1 win
Stuart to Flames gets 2 wins


Big moves. Big players lots of picks and prospects going back


nothing nadda zip blah to show for it.

Im not so sure the big splash is so important but hey it could be me.
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Post by Kel »

As Brian Burke has pointed out, many teams load up at the trade deadline and only one of them wins the Stanley Cup. I remember the year when Philly and Toronto both loaded up and Burke remarked: "one of them is going to lose in the first round". Even if you relax the standard and claim that winning two rounds is success, still 12 of 16 teams fail every year, but almost all 16 teams acquire players at the trade deadline.

By the way, I am curious to see how Calgary was not on your list; everybody said they were a contender after the big Stuart trade.
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Re: Making Big Moves at Deadline not always Smart

Post by Grizzly »

mattola wrote:Forsberg to Nashville gets 1 Win in a series
Guerin and Rivet to San Jose gets 1 series win
Tkachunk and Zhitnek to Atlanta gets a playoffs appearance with ZERO wins
Nagy to Dallas gets a 1st round loss
Ryan Smyth to NYI gets 1 win
Roberts to Penguins gets 1 win
Stuart to Flames gets 2 wins


Big moves. Big players lots of picks and prospects going back


nothing nadda zip blah to show for it.

Im not so sure the big splash is so important but hey it could be me.
Love when teams spend a lot of cash and give up draft picks etc. for the big name player or should I say flop.

Back to one of the main reasons why I like this new "salary capped" NHL. Teams can't afford now to buy several big name players ... they might be able to go with one or even possibly two but thats it ... the bottom line is that they HAVE to draft well and develop from within to be successful. Brings the true colours out on the GM's. and internal staff.

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Post by mattola »

Kel wrote:
By the way, I am curious to see how Calgary was not on your list; everybody said they were a contender after the big Stuart trade.
it was last on the list
Stuart to Flames gets 2 wins
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Post by Jyrki21 »

Kel wrote:As Brian Burke has pointed out, many teams load up at the trade deadline and only one of them wins the Stanley Cup. I remember the year when Philly and Toronto both loaded up and Burke remarked: "one of them is going to lose in the first round". Even if you relax the standard and claim that winning two rounds is success, still 12 of 16 teams fail every year, but almost all 16 teams acquire players at the trade deadline.
That's defensive consumption, though -- keeping up with the Joneses. Any way you slice it, even if only one team wins the Stanley Cup, it still puts you at a disadvantage not to improve your situation if all your neighbors do it. The teams named may not have gotten the results, but should they therefore not try? Spending probably won't net you a Cup, but not spending doesn't exactly improve your odds.

To use the Burke example: if Philly beefs up and Toronto doesn't, Philly's odds are still improved at Toronto's expense in their playoff series. Ergo, Toronto must beef up to keep pace. This is how arms races work. (You have to assume that acquiring good players does make your team better, even if it doesn't guarantee results). Put another way, if Toronto goes out in the first round after not beefing up, are they proud of themselves, or do they wonder how they might have fared if they kept pace with Philly? Hint: the second one.

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Re: Making Big Moves at Deadline not always Smart

Post by tantalum »

mattola wrote:Forsberg to Nashville gets 1 Win in a series
This one surprised me. I was not expecting Nashville to simply wilt under the pressure.
Guerin and Rivet to San Jose gets 1 series win
Guerin was nearly a disaster in San Jose. Certainly he was in the playoffs. But he's never really been a plyoff performer.

Rivet was fine but San Jose needs a true #1 D-man.
Tkachunk and Zhitnek to Atlanta gets a playoffs appearance with ZERO wins
I always go with the team that doesn't have Keith Tka-choke. Zhitnik was never going to be a difference maker.
Nagy to Dallas gets a 1st round loss
Well that was just a stupid move. Nagy just doesn't strike fear into the opponents. He doesn't seem like a playoff performer.
Ryan Smyth to NYI gets 1 win
Hard to say it as terrible as they desperately needed to make the playoffs. They accomplished that. But it certianly makes Lowe look better now that the islanders quickly got bounced.
Roberts to Penguins gets 1 win
This was a necessary trade for the Penguins. I also believe they have Roberts for another year (or atleast a very good shot at having him for another year)
Stuart to Flames gets 2 wins
i've never understood the Stuart hype. What exactly has he done? His biggest accomplishment was being a #3 overall pick. 3 teams in two years tells you something and it's not that he's wanted but rather the team giving him up doesn't feel bad in doing so. He's a #4 guy (honestly on the canucks I think he'd be #5). Nothing to get excited about and I think if a team gives him a huge UFA deal ($5 mil a year) they are going to be extremely sorry they did so. Limited offence for a supposed offensive guy and stretches of just terrible defence.

I still think the flames are better off with a Andrew Ference making 700k for the next couple of years than they are/were with Brad Stuart.

But as has been mentioned. This is one case that I think it's sometimes better to try and fail than to do nothing. IF you have the assets to do it.
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Post by Larionov »

None of the teams in the Final Four made big deadline deals, unless of course you want to call acquiring Brad May as a big deal. Ottawa got Comrie well ahead of the deadline, which may turn out to be the smarter move for teams with the cap space -- make your deal in January, instead of waiting until deadline day when the prices are insane.

I'm not sure where this notion started that somehow teams MUST make a splash at the deadline in order to win, but it is patently not true. My theory is that it started with the Butch Goring deal back in 1980, and just mushroomed from there. That trade Nashville made may well rank as one of the dumbest trades of all time, especially if young guys like Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, and that first rounder they acquired in Philly play a big role in their revival. Hell, if even one of them pans out, it was a good trade for Philly. Getting yourself an older, broken down veteran at the deadline and expecting him to make a magical trip to the fountain of youth in time for the playoffs is just asinine. Forsberg wasn't terrible for Nashville, but he sure wasn't the Peter Forsberg from 1997, nor should he have been expected to be. Dude had to wear a custom made skate because his ankle is so messed up, and Nashville expected that he would last four rounds in the playoffs, when he hasn't put in an injury free season in years?

None of this, however, will stop fans and the media from beating the drums again next year at deadline time, whipping themselves into a frenzy and screaming like banshees when a team decides to sit out the madness.
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Post by Kel »

mattola wrote:
Kel wrote:
By the way, I am curious to see how Calgary was not on your list; everybody said they were a contender after the big Stuart trade.
it was last on the list
Stuart to Flames gets 2 wins
I apologize for missing that one.

Back to the topic, I think it's more accurate to look at individual contribution. That is, did the acquired player make a difference when he's on the ice? Was the team better with him on the ice than the player he replaced? For example, even though Smolinski didn't do much in round 2, I think he made a difference late in the season and in round one, and definitely contributed more than what Marc Chouinard could have done.

I think these players helped their new team: Comrie, Zubrius, May, Rivet, Smolinksi, Avery, Norstrom, Ryan Smyth, and probably a few more (but not including Bertuzzi).

I agree that a team should try but still realize that a couple of players are not going to make a huge difference. The team has a 23-man roster and it's still largely the same group after the deadline.
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Post by cerios »

i've never understood the Stuart hype. What exactly has he done? His biggest accomplishment was being a #3 overall pick. 3 teams in two years tells you something and it's not that he's wanted but rather the team giving him up doesn't feel bad in doing so. He's a #4 guy (honestly on the canucks I think he'd be #5). Nothing to get excited about and I think if a team gives him a huge UFA deal ($5 mil a year) they are going to be extremely sorry they did so. Limited offence for a supposed offensive guy and stretches of just terrible defence.
Im not sure how you can say this, if Stuart was on the canucks he would probably be our best defencemen(maybe second to wily). He is a better Bieksa. He will get 5 million, and it will be deserved.

As for the rest of the loser acquisitions at the deadline, take a look at the list the only "winner" among them is Ryan Smith and as much of a warrior as he is he wasn't going to lead the islanders over buffalo.

I mean seriously Forsberg? worst deadline pickup EVER. Most overrated player EVER. He actually hurt Nashville's chances, that may very well go down as the most lopsided trade ever.

Tachauck? what is that now 10 time loser?

I won't bother with the rest of the list because lets face it they are minor players at best.
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Post by Mozy »

The whole point of moving Smyth, apart from the disagreement on salary, was really because the Oil werent going to make the playoffs and word was they wanted smyth to have another run at the cup. then again being traded to a team that comes in 8th and has to play the presedent trophy winner of that year is a tall order and while the Oilers miracle on ice was incredible to watch... the islanders? please...
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Post by Fred »

Of course the other point is there is little doubt that under the Salary Cap those teams that are going to fair well are those that have good draft picks that come to fuition and yet play under the rookie max slary, Getzlaf and perry are prime examples in Ducksville. When they sign thier next contarct there won't be space maybe for Pronger, Niedermyer and those two on the same team UNLESS they can dump at least one and bring in new rookies.

Loosing all those draft picks is going to hurt down the road
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Post by tantalum »

cerios wrote: Im not sure how you can say this, if Stuart was on the canucks he would probably be our best defencemen(maybe second to wily). He is a better Bieksa. He will get 5 million, and it will be deserved.
No way would he be the best D-man on the canucks. Don't let the big hit fool you into thinking he's better than he is. His defensive zone coverage is not great and his offence is quite often non-existent. He is not better than Mitchell in the defensive end. He is not better than ohlund at either end...no matter how much I complain about him. He is not better than Bieksa (atleast how Bieksa played this year). And in terms of day to day consistency he is not better than Salo. The guy is overrated IMO. He is extremely inconsistent at both ends of the ice. His playoff play has been simply bad his entire career.

Now with that said he is still young and can certainly improve. But thus far he has done nothing to suggest he's worth anything close to $5 million. He's done even less than Jovanovski had done when Jovo got his first big contract. I can tell you one thing there aren't many Sharks, Bruins or Flames fans that think he's worth $5 mil. Maybe roughly the same money as Ohlund, Salo and Mitchell because he is on the UFA market but he shouldn't receive anymore than that.

Can he be better than he is right now? Sure he can and he could even become a legitimate top 2 guy. But he isn't at that stage now. And no matter which way you slice it 3 teams in two years is not a good sign for such a supposed star. There are underlying reasons here that we don't really know about I think.

On Forsberg...I don't think it was Forsberg that hurt the Preds chances. It was the likes of Kariya being -4 and not putting up points. Erat. Hartnell. Forsberg was one of only 4 players for the Preds that was a plus. But the biggest problem was Vokoun who did not provide even average regular season goaltending let alone decent playoff goaltending. He didn't make the big saves at key times and let in some questionable ones. Hard to blame the Preds loss on Forsberg. Also not sure how Forsberg is overrated....he has been an excellent playoff performer his entire career.

Of all the deadline deals, acquiring a Ryan Smyth or a Forsberg is about as low risk as you can get. You know they are going to bust their asses and give whatever they have to give.
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Re: Making Big Moves at Deadline not always Smart

Post by Farhan Lalji »

mattola wrote:Forsberg to Nashville gets 1 Win in a series
Guerin and Rivet to San Jose gets 1 series win
Tkachunk and Zhitnek to Atlanta gets a playoffs appearance with ZERO wins
Nagy to Dallas gets a 1st round loss
Ryan Smyth to NYI gets 1 win
Roberts to Penguins gets 1 win
Stuart to Flames gets 2 wins
.

Interesting Stats. Sometimes I wonder if certain teams are just better off being spending as money as possible in the off-season so that they ARE close to the cap.

That way - two things are achieved:

1) You as a GM, show your players that you have confidence in them.
2) You aren't tempted to throw away high end draft pick players at the trade deadline.

In the last two years, Nonis has thrown draft picks in order to acquire Carney, Weinreich, Noronen, Brown, Sopel, and Smolinski. And for what? Perhaps Nonis should build as much as he can in the summer, show confidence in his team, and NOT "add pieces" at the deadline.

As Brian Burke a few months ago, "Only 1 team wins the cup."
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