Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by UWSaint »

ESQ wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:45 pm Does Sakic have a playbook, or does the Avalanche have a strict internal cap? I think its more the latter - they've been nearer the floor than the ceiling for many years. Which is very unfortunate, as they are undoubtedly wasting the best years of Mackinnon's career without ever gearing up for a run, and with the contract he's on they could have probably used the cap space to at least make the finals.
Sakic has a playbook. (1) Stick to a *small* core, and as a corollary (2) move out good players who aren't part of that core when there is value to be found (Soderberg, Barrie, Kerfoot); (3) don't pay for in demand free agents; concentrate on trades where you have negotiating leverage (Toews) or where you can deal from organizational depth (Saad).

There are two other things I've noticed about Sakic. He doesn't get taken to the cleaners on re-signings. And he knows that the season doesn't start on July 1. All GM's know this; Sakic is one of the few with the patience to ride it out.

It might also be that he's got an internal cap and this internal cap has made him squeeze the most efficiency out of everything he does. (This year they are going to get much closer to the cap).

As for not ever gearing up for a run during the Mackinnon years, they were geared up this year. The organization was a mess just 3 years ago and Sakic oversaw a tear down. Like as much of a mess as the Canucks were. Mackinnon looked good but not great, but Sakic signed him to many years and held onto Landeskog while letting other players move on, getting good returns where he could. In 3 short years, they are now a top 4 team in the conference through they seemed to have suffered a spate of injuries. They were beat in 7 games in a series where they had to use their third string goalie and by a team that went to the finals They have a defense comprised of Makar, Girard, Johnson, Toews, Graves, and Cole with Byram in the wings. That's talent in a lot of ways. And the offense? We know about the big three, but they've complemented that group nicely with the moves the past couple offseasons, which is a good thing because their homegrown guys haven't totally broken through (Compher's been good but you gotta think there's more, Jost has disappointed but could yet break out).

Goaltending might hold them back, but I think they are the team to beat in the west.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by ESQ »

I think we've had this debate a few times - either you're a big Sakic fan (understandable), or you're a big Avs fan (unforgiveable!).

So, Sakic started in 2013. He hired his buddy Patrick Roy as head coach, and rocketed off to a 52-win season. Surely, you would agree that season - the best regular season record in Franchise History - does not go to Sakic's credit, who made almost no moves other than re-acquiring Tanguay. Surprisingly, fan attendance remains low.

The following season, he started his process of trading off or letting go of very good young players, many of whom went on to win Cups. Starts with Stasny walking, while Sakic adds Iginla and Danny Briere. For reasons still unknown, Roy walks and the team middles its way to just missing the playoffs.

In 2015-16, he trades away ROR in an extremely lopsided trade. He signs Comeau on a fair UFA deal, and Beauchemin - who Sakic winds up having to buy out. Avs finish .500 and just miss the playoffs.

16-17: he really goes for the full-tank, having extended MacKinnon with a $6.3 mil cap hit after he'd established himself as a 50-60 point guy. Only 10 players on the team earn more than $2 mil. Sakic's trades acquire a pair of 4th round picks. Sakic strikes gold with Makar at 4th overall...but then extends Erik Johnson for $6 mil until he's 35.

17-18: Colorado establishes itself as a cap-floor team. However, Rantanen explodes to become a PPG player in his 2nd pro year. Thanks unreal years from Barrie, Mackinnon and Rantanen, the Avs are back in the playoffs! In spite of being a cap-floor team! Rebuild over! Sure, they were out in the 1st, but their young stars looked great!

18-19: The top line is the most dominant in hockey, Barrie's piling up the points, Soderberg is too, Kerfoot is an Elite 3rd Liner. And yet, Sakic sits on $10+ million in cap space. They look dominant in the 1st round, but lose to Ancient San Jose in the 2nd round. Sakic follows this up by:
- trading Barrie and Kerfoot for Kadri, acquiring a 3rd line center with grit...hey, I wonder how ROR would have looked in that spot?
- Trading Soderberg....off a 49-point season at 4.75 mil for one more year...for a 3rd
- letting Varlamov walk and going with career-back-up Grubauer and rookie Francouz

19-20: In spite of an encouraging step foward, Sakic decimates his goaltending and defence. He winds up with the 4th-lowest payroll in the NHL, but possibly THE lowest if he doesn't retain salary on Barrie. The forwards are hit by injury, but the top-end talent is so good they just roll through the reg season. In the playoffs, goaltending depth is pushed...and breaks. Meanwhile, Varlamov backstops the lunchbucket Islanders to game 6 of the ECF.

Interestingly, the year that Sakic dumps roster players is also the first year of the first Big Contract he's negotiated since Mackinnon - $9.5 mil for Rantanen. I think that's the 6th or 7th highest cap hit given to a player coming off an ELC. Taken to the cleaners? Certainly not a bargain.

In short, I don't think your two-chapter "playbook" of Sakic's really explains why he's spending at the floor year after year, and jettisoning so many players for such little return. This past season, imagine how they'd have done if they'd at least kept Soderberg? You call it a "value move", but Connauton and a 3rd is not value, its highway robbery. Neither asset will assist them last year, or this year - which coincidentally is the final year of Landeskog's bargain contract.

This year, I think Sakic is done making moves. He has 3 RFAs to extend, and that's it. Will Saad and Toews be enough to push Colorado through - finally - in the 7th year of Mackinnon's career and final year of Landeskog's bargain contract and final year of Makar's ELC?

Go back to Sakic's first year with Roy - the team was led by Duchene, ROR (2019 Stanley Cup, Conn Smyth), Landeskog, Mackinnon, Stastny (2019 Stanley Cup)

If you're talking about "finding value" in terms of bang for buck, I guess Sakic gets a lot of credit. But if you're talking about trading players and receiving better players, I don't see it in Sakic's record. I do see a team doing well for what its spending, but I see subtractions made for internal budget reasons and worse players coming back.

He inherited a team with a handful of lotto-pick players, won the lotto a few times himself, and hasn't taken advantage of a unique moment of high-value contracts in Landeskog, Mackinnon, and now Makar to go all-in.

Avs were the team to beat this year, according to yourself and myself and many others, but beaten they were.
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Post by Curmudgeon »

If they're still trying to add a RHD and the younger offer sheet type isn't going to happen, I wonder if they have any chance with Hamonic? He played the second most minutes on the Flames defense last season and logged a fair bit on the pk which would offset the Tanev loss.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Meds »

UWSaint wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:27 pm
ESQ wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:45 pm Does Sakic have a playbook, or does the Avalanche have a strict internal cap? I think its more the latter - they've been nearer the floor than the ceiling for many years. Which is very unfortunate, as they are undoubtedly wasting the best years of Mackinnon's career without ever gearing up for a run, and with the contract he's on they could have probably used the cap space to at least make the finals.
Sakic has a playbook. (1) Stick to a *small* core, and as a corollary (2) move out good players who aren't part of that core when there is value to be found (Soderberg, Barrie, Kerfoot); (3) don't pay for in demand free agents; concentrate on trades where you have negotiating leverage (Toews) or where you can deal from organizational depth (Saad).

There are two other things I've noticed about Sakic. He doesn't get taken to the cleaners on re-signings. And he knows that the season doesn't start on July 1. All GM's know this; Sakic is one of the few with the patience to ride it out.

It might also be that he's got an internal cap and this internal cap has made him squeeze the most efficiency out of everything he does. (This year they are going to get much closer to the cap).

As for not ever gearing up for a run during the Mackinnon years, they were geared up this year. The organization was a mess just 3 years ago and Sakic oversaw a tear down. Like as much of a mess as the Canucks were. Mackinnon looked good but not great, but Sakic signed him to many years and held onto Landeskog while letting other players move on, getting good returns where he could. In 3 short years, they are now a top 4 team in the conference through they seemed to have suffered a spate of injuries. They were beat in 7 games in a series where they had to use their third string goalie and by a team that went to the finals They have a defense comprised of Makar, Girard, Johnson, Toews, Graves, and Cole with Byram in the wings. That's talent in a lot of ways. And the offense? We know about the big three, but they've complemented that group nicely with the moves the past couple offseasons, which is a good thing because their homegrown guys haven't totally broken through (Compher's been good but you gotta think there's more, Jost has disappointed but could yet break out).

Goaltending might hold them back, but I think they are the team to beat in the west.
Sakic is looking like a genius for MacKinnon's contract right now. Going long-term on the kid after he had "underwhelmed" over the course of his ELC. For a 1OA he was looking like another name on the list of projected franchise forwards who would top out as a very good second tier top-6. Even after his extension he only hit the 53 point mark, and did it skating in 10 more games. Since then he's scored at a 100 point pace every year. Sakic's belief in the kid (evidenced by signing him to a 7 year contract) has proven to be a huge difference maker for the Avs as MacKinnon is now one of the top-5 (if not top 3) centers in the league.

All that being said, MacKinnon has 3 years left on his current contract, Landeskog and Makar have just this season, and they just gave Rantanen $9.25M. They'll find money for Nate in Johnson's expiring contract, but Makar is looking like he's going to be looking at the same money as our own Quinn Hughes, and I can't see Landeskog staying for no raise.

As you said, they have no real goaltending of note, so that could definitely hold them back (though Grubrauer has looked quite solid when healthy).

I'd say that Colorado has a 3 year window that opens this season and closes when MacKinnon and Johnson become free agents because they will have tied up $23M in a winger and 2 defensemen (assuming that Makar lands the same $9M everyone here is projecting for Hughes). Add Landeskog at $7M and they'll have to accept being a team that has $40+M devoted to their top line and top pairing without a goaltender. They could end up being Toronto West, albeit with a solid top 2 guys on the blueline instead of 4 forwards, 1 defenseman, and an inconsistent starting goalie.

None of this is to say that Sakic has done a poor job, he's been one of the better GM's in the league since taking the reigns. But it's definitely a short window if there is an internal cap.
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ESQ wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:04 pm I think we've had this debate a few times - either you're a big Sakic fan (understandable), or you're a big Avs fan (unforgiveable!).

The following season, he started his process of trading off or letting go of very good young players, many of whom went on to win Cups. Starts with Stasny walking, while Sakic adds Iginla and Danny Briere. For reasons still unknown, Roy walks and the team middles its way to just missing the playoffs.

In 2015-16, he trades away ROR in an extremely lopsided trade. He signs Comeau on a fair UFA deal, and Beauchemin - who Sakic winds up having to buy out. Avs finish .500 and just miss the playoffs.
At the time the trade was not so lopsided. O'Reilly had been a 60 point player once in his career and was projecting to be a 2nd line pivot, his two-way game was not what it is now, neither was his leadership and dedication. His time in Buffalo saw now real change in his game, and he was then dealt to St. Louis for 3 players, none of who are exactly world beaters. Maybe it was his 3rd trade in a young career (plus almost being grabbed on re-entry waivers) that finally got through to him, or maybe he just felt like he finally landed on a team where winning actually mattered, who knows.
17-18: Colorado establishes itself as a cap-floor team. However, Rantanen explodes to become a PPG player in his 2nd pro year. Thanks unreal years from Barrie, Mackinnon and Rantanen, the Avs are back in the playoffs! In spite of being a cap-floor team! Rebuild over! Sure, they were out in the 1st, but their young stars looked great!

18-19: The top line is the most dominant in hockey, Barrie's piling up the points, Soderberg is too, Kerfoot is an Elite 3rd Liner. And yet, Sakic sits on $10+ million in cap space. They look dominant in the 1st round, but lose to Ancient San Jose in the 2nd round. Sakic follows this up by:
- trading Barrie and Kerfoot for Kadri, acquiring a 3rd line center with grit...hey, I wonder how ROR would have looked in that spot?
- Trading Soderberg....off a 49-point season at 4.75 mil for one more year...for a 3rd
- letting Varlamov walk and going with career-back-up Grubauer and rookie Francouz
ROR is now a $7.5M forward, and he'd be the 2nd line center behind MacKinnon. That would be an incredible one-two punch. Though it would badly upset the cap situation there. Kadri is not a terrible consolation prize if looking for sandpaper that contributes 20 goals and 50 points.....he's also $3M cheaper (albeit probably $3.5M dumber as a player lol). But considering how Barrie and Kadri panned out in Leafland, I'd say Sakic won that trade handily.

Soderberg.....50 points and only a 3rd.....yeah, ouch. But only 35 points this past season with AZ, so maybe Burnaby Joe wasn't far wrong.

Varlamov had been an up and down goalie in Colorado for years. If it wasn't an injury it was ice cold play and brutal 3rd period collapses. He had seemed to steady under Roy, but after Patty left he wasn't the same and steadily declined overall as he played out his contract. Grubrauer has been his equal.

19-20: In spite of an encouraging step foward, Sakic decimates his goaltending and defence. He winds up with the 4th-lowest payroll in the NHL, but possibly THE lowest if he doesn't retain salary on Barrie. The forwards are hit by injury, but the top-end talent is so good they just roll through the reg season. In the playoffs, goaltending depth is pushed...and breaks. Meanwhile, Varlamov backstops the lunchbucket Islanders to game 6 of the ECF.
Again, too much credit to Varlamov. He's good when he's good, however the lunchbucket crew from Long Island is a Barry Trotz team. He's one of the best coaches going simply because he builds systems that maximize his roster. Varlamov reaped the benefits of playing for a coach who has one of the deepest young bluelines in the league (no true stud, but probably 5 top-4 guys, 3 of whom would be in 2/3 spots on any team). Either way you spin it, Varlamov only played one more round than Colorado.....who lost their starting goaltender during the second (but really first) round of the playoffs.
Interestingly, the year that Sakic dumps roster players is also the first year of the first Big Contract he's negotiated since Mackinnon - $9.5 mil for Rantanen. I think that's the 6th or 7th highest cap hit given to a player coming off an ELC. Taken to the cleaners? Certainly not a bargain.

In short, I don't think your two-chapter "playbook" of Sakic's really explains why he's spending at the floor year after year, and jettisoning so many players for such little return. This past season, imagine how they'd have done if they'd at least kept Soderberg? You call it a "value move", but Connauton and a 3rd is not value, its highway robbery. Neither asset will assist them last year, or this year - which coincidentally is the final year of Landeskog's bargain contract.

This year, I think Sakic is done making moves. He has 3 RFAs to extend, and that's it. Will Saad and Toews be enough to push Colorado through - finally - in the 7th year of Mackinnon's career and final year of Landeskog's bargain contract and final year of Makar's ELC?

Go back to Sakic's first year with Roy - the team was led by Duchene, ROR (2019 Stanley Cup, Conn Smyth), Landeskog, Mackinnon, Stastny (2019 Stanley Cup)
Definitely some things that point to an internal cap we don't know about.

Again, you overvalue players in hindsight. Would Soderberg's 35 points really have been all that difference making?

O'Reilly became what he is today several years after Sakic dealt him to Buffalo, and while the trade was far from an instant win (neither team really won actually), at the time, iirc, ROR's name was coming up as a player who just wasn't hitting his potential and possibly had attitude/teammate issues.

Why even mention Stastny.....plenty of players play for the Stanley Cup and don't win it. He's another name on a very, very, long list.
If you're talking about "finding value" in terms of bang for buck, I guess Sakic gets a lot of credit. But if you're talking about trading players and receiving better players, I don't see it in Sakic's record. I do see a team doing well for what its spending, but I see subtractions made for internal budget reasons and worse players coming back.

He inherited a team with a handful of lotto-pick players, won the lotto a few times himself, and hasn't taken advantage of a unique moment of high-value contracts in Landeskog, Mackinnon, and now Makar to go all-in.

Avs were the team to beat this year, according to yourself and myself and many others, but beaten they were.
Canucks were the team to beat in 2011 and 2012.....the first year we ran into a red hot and tough as nails Boston team that was mostly healthy while we were softer and already had several guys playing through some pretty big injuries, the 2nd year we just fell apart. It happens.
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ESQ wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:04 pm I think we've had this debate a few times - either you're a big Sakic fan (understandable), or you're a big Avs fan (unforgiveable!).
I will tell you this: I hated the Avalanche in the 2000s, but that hatred ended with division realignment. Now I can't help admire Mackinnon and Rantanen and Makar ... and Sakic. They are a team I watch when I have the chance because they are entertaining and impressive. I am not a fan of the team, but I am a fan of what they are doing and how they play.

I don't have time to break down your post -- you make some good points and some contestable ones. I have time to respond to O'Reilly. You claim the O'Reilly trade was lopsided. And sure, O'Reilly became a very good player. But you have to understand the context of the trade. He was good at the time, not great. He had already given Colorado fits with RFA year signings; he held out. As a pup. He was a year away from free agency, and the Avalanche (1) almost certainly weren't going to be able to resign him given their history and (2) weren't yet competitive. So he became a piece to refuel the rebuild. This is the bold call I admire Sakic for -- was O'Reilly going to be part of the core? No, whether by the Avs choice or O'Reilly. So once you know that, go get value.

What they got in return wasn't nothing -- it was Zadarov (who became a decent defensemen who was used to acquire Saad), Compher (who was on his way to becoming a star in the NCAA and has subsequently become a good middle 6 player though not a solid top 6 I am sure they hoped for), Grigorenko (a 12th overall pick who was 21 at the time and coming off a season split between the AHL (where he did well) and Buffalo (where he did not) (he never succeeded in the NHL and fled to Russia), and a second round pick that the Avs traded at the draft for two more seconds and a sixth. That's a pretty decent haul for a guy walking in a year: three new-to-the-NHL or near-NHL prospects (two former first rounders and a second), and three draft picks (two being second rounders).

It turns out that O'Reilly got even better and that none of those picks and prospects provide anything close to O'Reilly's current impact, but picks and prospects can never be sure things and when you are committed to a rebuild, that's what you do. Giving yourself 5 quality chances (the extra sixth is a throwaway) for a guy that won't be yours in a year is a good return.
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ESQ wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:04 pm I think we've had this debate a few times - either you're a big Sakic fan (understandable), or you're a big Avs fan (unforgiveable!).

So, Sakic started in 2013. He hired his buddy Patrick Roy as head coach, and rocketed off to a 52-win season. Surely, you would agree that season - the best regular season record in Franchise History - does not go to Sakic's credit, who made almost no moves other than re-acquiring Tanguay. Surprisingly, fan attendance remains low.

The following season, he started his process of trading off or letting go of very good young players, many of whom went on to win Cups. Starts with Stasny walking, while Sakic adds Iginla and Danny Briere. For reasons still unknown, Roy walks and the team middles its way to just missing the playoffs.

In 2015-16, he trades away ROR in an extremely lopsided trade. He signs Comeau on a fair UFA deal, and Beauchemin - who Sakic winds up having to buy out. Avs finish .500 and just miss the playoffs.

16-17: he really goes for the full-tank, having extended MacKinnon with a $6.3 mil cap hit after he'd established himself as a 50-60 point guy. Only 10 players on the team earn more than $2 mil. Sakic's trades acquire a pair of 4th round picks. Sakic strikes gold with Makar at 4th overall...but then extends Erik Johnson for $6 mil until he's 35.

17-18: Colorado establishes itself as a cap-floor team. However, Rantanen explodes to become a PPG player in his 2nd pro year. Thanks unreal years from Barrie, Mackinnon and Rantanen, the Avs are back in the playoffs! In spite of being a cap-floor team! Rebuild over! Sure, they were out in the 1st, but their young stars looked great!

18-19: The top line is the most dominant in hockey, Barrie's piling up the points, Soderberg is too, Kerfoot is an Elite 3rd Liner. And yet, Sakic sits on $10+ million in cap space. They look dominant in the 1st round, but lose to Ancient San Jose in the 2nd round. Sakic follows this up by:
- trading Barrie and Kerfoot for Kadri, acquiring a 3rd line center with grit...hey, I wonder how ROR would have looked in that spot?
- Trading Soderberg....off a 49-point season at 4.75 mil for one more year...for a 3rd
- letting Varlamov walk and going with career-back-up Grubauer and rookie Francouz

19-20: In spite of an encouraging step foward, Sakic decimates his goaltending and defence. He winds up with the 4th-lowest payroll in the NHL, but possibly THE lowest if he doesn't retain salary on Barrie. The forwards are hit by injury, but the top-end talent is so good they just roll through the reg season. In the playoffs, goaltending depth is pushed...and breaks. Meanwhile, Varlamov backstops the lunchbucket Islanders to game 6 of the ECF.

Interestingly, the year that Sakic dumps roster players is also the first year of the first Big Contract he's negotiated since Mackinnon - $9.5 mil for Rantanen. I think that's the 6th or 7th highest cap hit given to a player coming off an ELC. Taken to the cleaners? Certainly not a bargain.

In short, I don't think your two-chapter "playbook" of Sakic's really explains why he's spending at the floor year after year, and jettisoning so many players for such little return. This past season, imagine how they'd have done if they'd at least kept Soderberg? You call it a "value move", but Connauton and a 3rd is not value, its highway robbery. Neither asset will assist them last year, or this year - which coincidentally is the final year of Landeskog's bargain contract.

This year, I think Sakic is done making moves. He has 3 RFAs to extend, and that's it. Will Saad and Toews be enough to push Colorado through - finally - in the 7th year of Mackinnon's career and final year of Landeskog's bargain contract and final year of Makar's ELC?

Go back to Sakic's first year with Roy - the team was led by Duchene, ROR (2019 Stanley Cup, Conn Smyth), Landeskog, Mackinnon, Stastny (2019 Stanley Cup)

If you're talking about "finding value" in terms of bang for buck, I guess Sakic gets a lot of credit. But if you're talking about trading players and receiving better players, I don't see it in Sakic's record. I do see a team doing well for what its spending, but I see subtractions made for internal budget reasons and worse players coming back.

He inherited a team with a handful of lotto-pick players, won the lotto a few times himself, and hasn't taken advantage of a unique moment of high-value contracts in Landeskog, Mackinnon, and now Makar to go all-in.

Avs were the team to beat this year, according to yourself and myself and many others, but beaten they were.
All right. Time for a few more thoughts.

(1) Sakic gets no credit for the first year, I agree.

(2) A core can only be so big. Sakic made the call that the later 2010s early 2020s core was not going to include Stasny, Duchene and O'Reilly -- a decision that was probably partly influenced by whether they wanted to stick around (O'Reilly did not). I think it was a decisive, unpopular, but smart decision to move on from Stasny and Duchene, and I don't think he really had a choice with O'Reilly.

(3) Stasny wasn't part of the Blues for their Stanley Cup. He's a decent player with durability issues -- not one to make a core from, but the kind of player that many teams hold on to and overpay when they shouldn't.

(4) The Avalanche probably went into Sakic's second season with the idea that they'd be able to reproduce the magic. But they were underwhelming. I happen to think Sakic was correct to evaluate the first season as the unicorn. So he moved on from it, getting value from Duchene and O'Reilly.
Most teams wait too long to turn it over. How much have we seen complaints about the Canucks' waning core?

(5) Soderberg was 34 and coming off a career year. There's no doubt the organization is hoping for Jost to step up, but with Kadri, they didn't need Soderberg as a second liner if Jost didn't improve (and he didn't much). Its easy to imagine that this was influenced by cost sensitivity in the organization, but losing Soderberg didn't really have a negative effect on the team. I think the fact that Sakic didn't need to trade him and that all he returned was a 3rd and Connaughton is an indication of how much value a 34 year old like Soderberg has when making more than $4 million. I'd look at it the other way -- he might have gotten little value for him, but Soderberg wouldn't have been value to the 2019-20 Avalanche.

And what did the Avalanche do with this pick? They used it with other mid-to-low-value assets to acquire Burokovsky.

(6) I don't get this idea that Sakic hasn't taken advantage of the talent he has. He remade the team from a good 2018-19 team to a better 2019-20 team with a better chance to compete in the playoffs.

(7) Varlamov is an at times brilliant but largely inconsistent goalie who at 31 years if age signed for 5 years at 5 million a year. Yes, you don't want that. Grubauer isn't an improvement, but he's not worse and he is younger and cheaper. He outplayed Varlomov in 2018-19 and was as good as him last season.

(8) If the team has an internal cap that constrained Sakic, why is that a reflection on Sakic? It only makes what he's done more impressive.

(9) I don't know how you can criticize the Avs defense this season. They didn't need Barrie. Barrie's good to run a PP; they have Makar. They had a really solid top 6. And year they were decimated by injuries, but they still rolled on because the team Sakic built is pretty deep. Sakic's traded away a lot of talent because he's put himself in a position to more than adequately replace that talent.

(10) Rantanen's comp. in my view is Marner, with Rantanen being a slightly better scorer with a better playoff track record (small samples of course) and Marner getting more dimes. Compare their salaries. (Rantanen's actually at 9.25 million.) Sakic didn't get bent over like GQ. A great deal? No. But a fair one.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by ESQ »

UWSaint wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:18 am
I will tell you this: I hated the Avalanche in the 2000s, but that hatred ended with division realignment. Now I can't help admire Mackinnon and Rantanen and Makar ... and Sakic. They are a team I watch when I have the chance because they are entertaining and impressive. I am not a fan of the team, but I am a fan of what they are doing and how they play.
I've always assumed from your alma mater that you possibly live somewhere that is within the Avalanche "catchment" for media coverage, as you are extremely knowledgeable about the team.

Re all the very fair points about applying hindsight to the ROR trade, I will say this - it is extremely uncommon that a player wins the Conn Smythe after being traded or changing teams from the team that drafted them. ROR - traded, Williams - traded, Niedemayer -UFA, and that's it for the past 30 years.

If you want to give Sakic a pass for trading away a 24 year old star-in-the-making, that's fine. But maybe management also wears some blame for failing to foster ROR the way he ultimately was in St Louis?

At the end of the day, Sakic took over a team that had been rebuilding for 5 years, won a lottery, and got to the second round 12 years after the rebuild started. I don't think that's particularly impressive.
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Meds wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:04 am Sakic is looking like a genius for MacKinnon's contract right now. Going long-term on the kid after he had "underwhelmed" over the course of his ELC. For a 1OA he was looking like another name on the list of projected franchise forwards who would top out as a very good second tier top-6. Even after his extension he only hit the 53 point mark, and did it skating in 10 more games. Since then he's scored at a 100 point pace every year. Sakic's belief in the kid (evidenced by signing him to a 7 year contract) has proven to be a huge difference maker for the Avs as MacKinnon is now one of the top-5 (if not top 3) centers in the league.
Just like Jim Benning signing Bo Horvat - genius - after his playoff performance, dominant.
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Van has to be considered a contender out of the west now. 4 excellent top end fwds, 2 excellent top end dmen and a league best calibre duo in net.

Giggity

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The Brown Wizard wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:50 am Van has to be considered a contender out of the west now. 4 excellent top end fwds, 2 excellent top end dmen and a league best calibre duo in net.

Giggity

(oh and no Turnover Troy!)
Flames will be easy for the Canucks to beat. Be like practice. Score at will. Vegas will be a target for on-ice barbs thanks to new info.
Blues lost their heart and soul. Denver will choke, so will Dallas. California Golden teams are nowhere.

Whatever the format chosen to play this year, the Canucks will probably not be as challenged with a travel schedule and we can take advantage of that and better our round two playoff performance last season.
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ESQ wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:14 pm
UWSaint wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:18 am
I will tell you this: I hated the Avalanche in the 2000s, but that hatred ended with division realignment. Now I can't help admire Mackinnon and Rantanen and Makar ... and Sakic. They are a team I watch when I have the chance because they are entertaining and impressive. I am not a fan of the team, but I am a fan of what they are doing and how they play.
I've always assumed from your alma mater that you possibly live somewhere that is within the Avalanche "catchment" for media coverage, as you are extremely knowledgeable about the team.

Re all the very fair points about applying hindsight to the ROR trade, I will say this - it is extremely uncommon that a player wins the Conn Smythe after being traded or changing teams from the team that drafted them. ROR - traded, Williams - traded, Niedemayer -UFA, and that's it for the past 30 years.

If you want to give Sakic a pass for trading away a 24 year old star-in-the-making, that's fine. But maybe management also wears some blame for failing to foster ROR the way he ultimately was in St Louis?

At the end of the day, Sakic took over a team that had been rebuilding for 5 years, won a lottery, and got to the second round 12 years after the rebuild started. I don't think that's particularly impressive.
What lottery did Joe Sakic win?

They finished last in 2016/17 and dropped to drafting 4th in 2017.

Byram wasn’t a lottery win. The pick to draft him was scooped up in a heist of a trade which shipped Matt Duchene out of Denver. That trade also gave them a top pairing D man in Girard and a pile of picks and prospects.

Rantanen was an excellent pick at 10 in 2015. Their system is loaded with good young players. Joe Sakic has done a great job in Colorado.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 19-20 Sponsored by SKYO

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Doyle Hargraves wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:08 am
What lottery did Joe Sakic win?
Mackinnon.
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ESQ wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:17 am
Doyle Hargraves wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:08 am
What lottery did Joe Sakic win?
Mackinnon.
MacKinnon was drafted when Greg Sherman was the GM. Either way Makar, Girard, Rantanen,Byram, and an excellent young pipeline is due to Burnaby Joe’s shrewd drafting and trading.
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Micky wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:33 am
The Brown Wizard wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:50 am Van has to be considered a contender out of the west now. 4 excellent top end fwds, 2 excellent top end dmen and a league best calibre duo in net.

Giggity

(oh and no Turnover Troy!)
Flames will be easy for the Canucks to beat. Be like practice. Score at will. Vegas will be a target for on-ice barbs thanks to new info.
Blues lost their heart and soul. Denver will choke, so will Dallas. California Golden teams are nowhere.

Whatever the format chosen to play this year, the Canucks will probably not be as challenged with a travel schedule and we can take advantage of that and better our round two playoff performance last season.
While I really like the young core the Canucks have, I don't think that beating the flames will be easy. I think they will split the games they play each other. Calgary still has a pretty good offense, the D is probably better than the Canucks and at the very least, they have as good if not better goaltending. Although each team has different strengths and weaknesses, I view them as about equal at this point.
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