2019 UFA

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by rikster » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:51 am

I wouldn't chase any UFA's...

Because they are always an overpayment and not sure why some think that this time they will be good value?...

I'd rather go the weaponizing our cap space route and look to making a trade with teams up against the cap, ie Tampa or teams who do buy UFA's needing to shed salary to fit those contracts into their cap budget...

Getting rid of the non performing contracts on the team is not a concern or an issue because there are countless examples of teams burying their bad contracts around the league...

Just stay away from the high end UFA's...

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Meds » Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:16 am

rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:51 am
I wouldn't chase any UFA's...

Because they are always an overpayment and not sure why some think that this time they will be good value?...

I'd rather go the weaponizing our cap space route and look to making a trade with teams up against the cap, ie Tampa or teams who do buy UFA's needing to shed salary to fit those contracts into their cap budget...

Getting rid of the non performing contracts on the team is not a concern or an issue because there are countless examples of teams burying their bad contracts around the league...

Just stay away from the high end UFA's...
The true high end UFA's are the guys you don't stay away from and overpay to land.....Tavares last year, Karlsson this year.

It's the Loui Eriksson's that you steer clear of overpaying. Free agent players who have a track record of scoring in the 25 goal, 60 point, range tend to get the kind of money that has been given to 30+ goal, 70+ point, top line skaters.....and then they almost always under-perform in their first season or two with the new team. The legit top line skaters who test free agency generally end up setting the new salary bar for their peers league-wide, but they don't have the same disappointing performance drop off nearly as often.

Myers probably fits in the category of a potential overpayment, although even if he were to re-sign with Winnipeg he would probably command close to $7M, so overpaying by anything less than $1M is not that big of a deal.

Defensemen are also worth risking on, particularly when they a consistent performance history, even more so when the team we are talking about here has the thinnest, softest, shittiest, blueline in the league.

A guy like Panarin is a buyer-beware UFA. He's uber skilled, but he's not a franchise level talent, and someone somewhere will offer him a contract that they will regret down the road. If he will sign for less than $9M he might be worth it.....but right now I still think that anything more than $8M you should be reserving for guys that are going to be leaders on and off the ice as well as put points on the board. Panarin will do the latter, but unlikely the former.

Too many fans are gun shy about the UFA market because they have just seen what Dubas did in Toronto over the last 12 months. He made several mistakes though. The first was that he had a franchise centre on his roster in Matthews and then went and added John Tavares at $11M. Then he let Nylander dictate too many terms and refused to trade him. Both of these mistakes were compounded by a seeming forgetfulness that he had Matthews to sign this year along with his leading scorer in Marner, and his blueline was going to need some serious attention too. Regardless, if you are going to go fishing in the free agent pool it is probably unwise to go and blow your wad on a player-type that you already own.....had Toronto waited until this season and dropped $11M on Karlsson, they would have been smarter.

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Richardstroker69 » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:55 pm

Meds wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:03 am
Skip the top 6 forward group in free agency. Draft a winger unless we are in a spot to grab Hughes, Cozens, or Dach.

I read someone on here say they think we are going to see a Toffolli for Hutton trade, I would be fine with that, in fact it got me thinking about IF's and whatever's.....so I hopped on capfriendly and played armchair GM.

Sign and trade deal with LA. Hutton for Toffoli with us burning a future 3rd rounder and getting back a future 4th or 5th if required.

Eriksson, Tanev, Spooner, and Sutter, all traded for any return that doesn't impact our cap. Yes it's an almost impossible sell with the exception of Tanev.

Signed Boeser to $7M bridge deal.

Re-signed Edler $5.5M.

Extended Demko $1.75M.

Signed Karlsson $11M x 7.

Signed Myers $7.5M x 5.

Ended up with the following lineup.....

Virtanen - Pettersson - Boeser
Pearson - Horvat - Toffoli
Roussel - Gaudette - Baertschi
Schaller - Beagle - MacEwan

Edler - Karlsson
Hughes - Myers
Brisebois - Stecher
Biega

Markstrom
Demko

Total cap hit: $71M and change.

That leaves $14M to make other changes as obviously I don't think a bottom pairing of Brisebois and Stecher is NHL-worthy, and we should add a bottom pairing guy in the $2.5M or less range on the left side.....and we could even give Goldobin another shot on a show-me deal or try to add Panarin, or Skinner.

Regardless, our issue hasn't been scoring this season so much as it's been getting nothing from the blueline on offense outside of Edler, and surrendering piles of shots and changes or being unable to get the puck out of our end because none of our defensemen outside of Edler and Tanev can make a decent pass under pressure.

I think we should be focusing on a major overhaul of the blueline, and I would definitely ship out Tanev and go after both Myers and Karlsson. We don't even have to dump Tanman to do what I suggested, he's UFA after this season and could stick around and then be dealt at the deadline instead. I would even consider trading Tanev to a team with extra LD and in need of RD for a left-side D on a similar contract who is a top-4 guy that pushes Hughes down to the bottom pairing at even strength.

The point is, if Benning can get out from under Eriksson, Sutter, and Spooner, we are absolutely LAUGHING come July when it comes to spending money on players, and with a few of our expiring contracts in 2020 and 2021, there's room to give raises to Pettersson, Hughes, and others.
I’ve been pushing that toffoli idea around, i think it makes a lot of sense, him and Pearson have good chemistry already, both should have bounce back years playing with bo.

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Meds » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:39 pm

Richardstroker69 wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:55 pm
Meds wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:03 am
Skip the top 6 forward group in free agency. Draft a winger unless we are in a spot to grab Hughes, Cozens, or Dach.

I read someone on here say they think we are going to see a Toffolli for Hutton trade, I would be fine with that, in fact it got me thinking about IF's and whatever's.....so I hopped on capfriendly and played armchair GM.
I’ve been pushing that toffoli idea around, i think it makes a lot of sense, him and Pearson have good chemistry already, both should have bounce back years playing with bo.
It would be a line that could skate and play with a bunch of energy for sure. I'm not sure how creative it would be, but north-south and along the wall, it would be a force no question. Both Pearson and Toffoli came up through Dutter's system in LA during their powerhouse years, so at least know how to play at both ends of the ice too.

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by rikster » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:45 pm

Meds wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:16 am
rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:51 am
I wouldn't chase any UFA's...

Because they are always an overpayment and not sure why some think that this time they will be good value?...

I'd rather go the weaponizing our cap space route and look to making a trade with teams up against the cap, ie Tampa or teams who do buy UFA's needing to shed salary to fit those contracts into their cap budget...

Getting rid of the non performing contracts on the team is not a concern or an issue because there are countless examples of teams burying their bad contracts around the league...

Just stay away from the high end UFA's...
The true high end UFA's are the guys you don't stay away from and overpay to land.....Tavares last year, Karlsson this year.

It's the Loui Eriksson's that you steer clear of overpaying. Free agent players who have a track record of scoring in the 25 goal, 60 point, range tend to get the kind of money that has been given to 30+ goal, 70+ point, top line skaters.....and then they almost always under-perform in their first season or two with the new team. The legit top line skaters who test free agency generally end up setting the new salary bar for their peers league-wide, but they don't have the same disappointing performance drop off nearly as often.

Myers probably fits in the category of a potential overpayment, although even if he were to re-sign with Winnipeg he would probably command close to $7M, so overpaying by anything less than $1M is not that big of a deal.

Defensemen are also worth risking on, particularly when they a consistent performance history, even more so when the team we are talking about here has the thinnest, softest, shittiest, blueline in the league.

A guy like Panarin is a buyer-beware UFA. He's uber skilled, but he's not a franchise level talent, and someone somewhere will offer him a contract that they will regret down the road. If he will sign for less than $9M he might be worth it.....but right now I still think that anything more than $8M you should be reserving for guys that are going to be leaders on and off the ice as well as put points on the board. Panarin will do the latter, but unlikely the former.

Too many fans are gun shy about the UFA market because they have just seen what Dubas did in Toronto over the last 12 months. He made several mistakes though. The first was that he had a franchise centre on his roster in Matthews and then went and added John Tavares at $11M. Then he let Nylander dictate too many terms and refused to trade him. Both of these mistakes were compounded by a seeming forgetfulness that he had Matthews to sign this year along with his leading scorer in Marner, and his blueline was going to need some serious attention too. Regardless, if you are going to go fishing in the free agent pool it is probably unwise to go and blow your wad on a player-type that you already own.....had Toronto waited until this season and dropped $11M on Karlsson, they would have been smarter.
I’ve been on hockey message boards since the mid 90’s and overpayment for UFA’s has been a constant that you can Bank on...

You might take a snapshot in time and argue a value contract but these high end UFA’s not only get $$ they get term so sooner or later they become non value contracts..

btw, another signing in Toronto I question was the Marleau contract...

I think the Nucks should sit this UFA frenzy out, and the good news is there will be another one next year...

Take care

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Doyle Hargraves » Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:54 pm

So should they sit the next year too?

There is value in the UFA and this team has signed decent UFA in the past.
Thomas Vanek
Mats Sundin
Dan Hamhuis
Willie Mitchell
Murray Baron
Tanner Glass
Raffi Torres
Manny Malhotra
Anson Carter


And then they have a massive blob of shit for signings most of them by the current regime
“ROR IS OVERRATED, MACKINNON IS A BUM, TAVARES IS DONE”

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by rikster » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:03 pm

Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:54 pm
So should they sit the next year too?

There is value in the UFA and this team has signed decent UFA in the past.
Thomas Vanek
Mats Sundin
Dan Hamhuis
Willie Mitchell
Murray Baron
Tanner Glass
Raffi Torres
Manny Malhotra
Anson Carter


And then they have a massive blob of shit for signings most of them by the current regime
None of those contracts had term so poor examples...

As I said, I’d look to take advantage of cap ceiling teams or sit on the sidelines and worry about next year next year...

btw, surprised by the cap situation in Vegas, who’d thought?

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by SKYO » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:34 pm

Meds wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:16 am
rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:51 am
I wouldn't chase any UFA's...

Because they are always an overpayment and not sure why some think that this time they will be good value?...

I'd rather go the weaponizing our cap space route and look to making a trade with teams up against the cap, ie Tampa or teams who do buy UFA's needing to shed salary to fit those contracts into their cap budget...

Getting rid of the non performing contracts on the team is not a concern or an issue because there are countless examples of teams burying their bad contracts around the league...

Just stay away from the high end UFA's...
The true high end UFA's are the guys you don't stay away from and overpay to land.....Tavares last year, Karlsson this year.
:thumbs: :thumbs:

Why I think JB is throwing up a smokescreen about $11M types. EK could increase everyone's trade value, between Petey/Boeser/Q and EK, all the players behind them and around them will get better.
A long time ago, a baseball player remarked: "If I owned a ballclub, I'd hire a $5,000 coach and a $15,000 scout."

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Doyle Hargraves » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:40 pm

rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:03 pm
Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:54 pm
So should they sit the next year too?

There is value in the UFA and this team has signed decent UFA in the past.
Thomas Vanek
Mats Sundin
Dan Hamhuis
Willie Mitchell
Murray Baron
Tanner Glass
Raffi Torres
Manny Malhotra
Anson Carter


And then they have a massive blob of shit for signings most of them by the current regime
None of those contracts had term so poor examples...

As I said, I’d look to take advantage of cap ceiling teams or sit on the sidelines and worry about next year next year...

btw, surprised by the cap situation in Vegas, who’d thought?
You didn’t really specify that. Hamhuis was six year, Mitchell was 4 and Baron was three then two. Manny was three years
“ROR IS OVERRATED, MACKINNON IS A BUM, TAVARES IS DONE”

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by UWSaint » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:58 pm

rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:03 pm
Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:54 pm
So should they sit the next year too?

There is value in the UFA and this team has signed decent UFA in the past.
Thomas Vanek
Mats Sundin
Dan Hamhuis
Willie Mitchell
Murray Baron
Tanner Glass
Raffi Torres
Manny Malhotra
Anson Carter


And then they have a massive blob of shit for signings most of them by the current regime
None of those contracts had term so poor examples...

As I said, I’d look to take advantage of cap ceiling teams or sit on the sidelines and worry about next year next year...

btw, surprised by the cap situation in Vegas, who’d thought?
Hamhuis and Mitchell were in Vancouver for 4 years.

But let's unpack Blob's point outside of the term context and for what he stated -- there is and can be value in UFA signings.

I think the value is often hometown discounts (player isn't trying to maximize); playing for a contender (Canucks will have a hard time attracting that talent); and not on the "hot" list but still valuable in the right situation (Carter/Vanek). These are often the guys that don't go on July 1. The difference between those UFAs where there is a unjustified buzz and those who who are undervalued -- often because they used to be a hot commodity, is pretty small.

So who is on that list? Don't know yet, but on defense, my view is that the likelihood Stralman or Edler provide more value over the next 3 or 4 years to their clubs and than Jake Gardiner is not insubstantial. And they will go for far less money.

There is a ton of buzz about Simmonds, but is he really going to contribute more than Brock Nelson? The contract given out on July 1 will say yes, because one or more teams will target Simmonds. But if Nelson wasn't on the top of anyone's list, then a fairly reliable and somewhat versatile 20 goal guy is going to get half the money as Simmonds, if that. The market doesn't care about 20 goal guys; it fawns over not-guaranteed-but-potential 30 goal guys that play "heavy." Its silly, unless those heavy guys play an exceptional two way game. Its silly because reliable 20 goal guys are significantly better than replacement level players, and the difference between a reliable 20 with an okay 2-way game on your second line and one of these hot commodities is smaller than the difference between that reliable 20 and Josh Leivo (someone who might score 20 but really isn't a very good all around player because they are defensively weak and on offense can't play reliably at top pace). And its silly because those "x factors" that get teams excited by players like Simmonds or Lucic or even Ladd are the x factors that predict accelerated aging breakdown.

How about Pavelski? I bet the guy scores more goals in the next two seasons as one of these hot commodities will score over a 5 year deal. But no one's looking at him for a long term deal because he's over 35. But he's never relied on speed, and he remains very effective. He'll probably stay in San Jose so the point is moot, but if he wasn't and your team was close, there's a great argument to be made for throwing a ton of money at him to play for two seasons. Especially for a team that struggles on the PP.

I'm not advocating for either Nelson or Pavelski on the Canucks. I advocate for addressing the Defense, and I'd love to see a guy like Myers in Vancouver even if its an overpayment. But the point is that there will be forwards that will go for a reasonable term and $$ because there is typically a cliff in the market.
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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by rikster » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:34 am

Hamhuis and Mitchell were in Vancouver for 4 years.


Wouldn't we be happy if the Eriksson contract was only for 4 years?

Contracts handed out to the marquee players that UFA frenzy that saw Eriksson sign in Vancouver with their stats this season;

Kyle Okposo, RW, SIGNS SEVEN-YEAR DEAL WORTH $42 MILLION WITH SABRES. (11 goals 25 points)

Troy Brouwer, RW, SIGNS FOUR-YEAR DEAL WORTH $18 MILLION WITH FLAMES. (Bought out)

David Backes, C, SIGNS FIVE-YEAR DEAL WORTH $30 MILLION WITH BRUINS. (5 goals 16 points)

Milan Lucic, LW, SIGNS SEVEN-YEAR DEAL WORTH $42 MILLION WITH OILERS. (5 goals 17 points)

Frans Nielsen, C, SIGNS SIX-YEAR DEAL WORTH $31.5 MILLION WITH RED WINGS. (9 goals 33 points)

Andrew Ladd, LW, SIGNS SEVEN-YEAR DEAL WORTH $38.5 MILLION WITH ISLANDERS. (3 goals 10 points)

James Reimer, G, SIGNS FIVE-YEAR DEAL WORTH $17 MILLION WITH PANTHERS. ( 3.02 GAA .902 SV%)

Darren Helm, SIGNS FIVE-YEAR DEAL WORTH $19.2 MILLION WITH RED WINGS. (7 goals 15 points)

Eriksson has 10 goals and 22 points this season....

Every UFA season some will say this year is different or this player is different but the history tell us that is a folly...if a 3rd round draft pick has a 12% chance of becoming an impact player in the league, what are the odds that a marquee free agent who is given $ and term will turn out to be a value contract?

More likely the only value they give is intangible value like good in the room or a great mentor to the kids which is another way of saying we made a big mistake in signing him....

Now is not the time to go big game hunting, just sit this one out...

Take care...

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Doyle Hargraves » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:43 am

I said Mitchell was signed for four years. Hamhuis signed for and played six years. They were both excellent signings
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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by theman » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:44 am

I am actually 'okay' with the forwards we would be bringing back next year. Yes, there are some I would like to see gone, Sutter, Spooner, Erikson but I think their replacements would come back in trades. What I would like is to see Benning, or whoever our GM is, spend most of the cap space on bringing in quality D. Don't have a list of UFA in front of me but I am thinking Myers and ........ to be honest, I would stay away from Karlsson, just think he would demand too much in $ and term. Would like to see 2 to 3 quality D men brought in.

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by rikster » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:56 am

theman wrote:
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:44 am
I am actually 'okay' with the forwards we would be bringing back next year. Yes, there are some I would like to see gone, Sutter, Spooner, Erikson but I think their replacements would come back in trades. What I would like is to see Benning, or whoever our GM is, spend most of the cap space on bringing in quality D. Don't have a list of UFA in front of me but I am thinking Myers and ........ to be honest, I would stay away from Karlsson, just think he would demand too much in $ and term. Would like to see 2 to 3 quality D men brought in.
I'd like to see some of the Utica forwards make the jump next season...

What I find a head scratcher is that for all of the angst over Goldobin, the team has a better player in Boucher sitting in the minors and nobody is screaming for his return....

There are some very good teams who will have cap issues next season like Tampa and Vegas and Toronto which is where I think Benning should be looking....

Similar to the Ehroff situation back in the days of Gillis...

Take care...

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Re: 2019 UFA

Post by Doyle Hargraves » Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:03 am

Other than MacEwan there isn’t a player in Utica good enough to play here. That’s appalling considering this has been the worst team in the NHL the last four years
“ROR IS OVERRATED, MACKINNON IS A BUM, TAVARES IS DONE”

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