When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

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When will the Canucks next make the playoffs?

2018-19
9
32%
2019-20
13
46%
2020-21
6
21%
2021-22
0
No votes
2022-23
0
No votes
after we're all dead and buried
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 28

ESQ
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by ESQ » Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:26 am

Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:53 pm
Kopitar and Carter is a great 1-2 punch up the middle and Kopitar is a top 10 centre in his sleep. He is a two way horse and good for 75 points a year.
Prior to his career-year last year, he'd been averaging more like 65 points. He's cracked 75 points twice in the past decade.

When he's a 70+ point center, for sure he is top-10 in the league. The problem is when he's a 64-point center, or a 52-point center, he's one of the least-productive first-line centers in the League. Again, not too dissimilar to Henrik Sedin - a 50-point center under Torts and the team is out of the playoffs, a 73-point center in 14/15 and the team makes the playoffs.

Carter is a great 2nd-line center, but you know what to expect from him when healthy - 60 points. He's been remarkably consistent - including during the years the Kings have missed the playoffs.
Quick is a much better goalie than Miller ever has been.
He definitely the goalie I'd pick between the 2 of them, but they're actually fairly similar regular season goalies. Miller has a career .915 SV%, Quick is .916. Had it not been for the last 2 years in Vancouver, they'd probably have a similar win % as well. The huge difference obviously is playoff performance - but even then, Miller has more playoff Ws than Quick over the last 4 years.
Not a bad comparison to the Canucks of 14-15, but I see more of the Canucks of 11-12 and 12-13 sans the stud d man
Ya, I went with 14/15 because they're both coming off of missing the playoffs, they both had good seasons sparked by big turnarounds from older players. There was a perception that the team success in 14/15 put off the rebuild (I don't agree with that), and there's certainly an argument to be made that the Kings are avoiding a re-build because they think they can still make the playoffs.

But who knows, in last year's thread I predicted Jussi Jokinen would save the Oilers and carry them to the promised land!

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Blob Mckenzie » Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:45 am

Kopitar is a model of consistency.

He has averaged 73.6 points per game over his career. If you want to throw out last year as an outlier then I’ll do the same thing for the 52 point season. Roll back the previous seven seasons and he has averaged 74.5 points per 82. You say he has only cracked 75 points twice in the last decade. Actually he has done it three times in nine years and has seasons of 73 in 75 games, 70 and 74.

He does all this and has won two Selkes and two cups. He will end up having a better career overall than Henrik and is a two way beast. Calling him a top 10 - 50 centre for most of his career is ridiculous.

For the record I would have torn that thing apart in LA starting this summer. I don’t think they are set up well long term but I think they could have a couple good seasons left. Who knows maybe Vilardi becomes a stud and they unearth another Muzzin type and keep rolling like the Sharks.
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Island Nucklehead » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:39 pm

Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:45 am
For the record I would have torn that thing apart in LA starting this summer. I don’t think they are set up well long term but I think they could have a couple good seasons left. Who knows maybe Vilardi becomes a stud and they unearth another Muzzin type and keep rolling like the Sharks.
I think whenever you have a Kopitar, a Doughty, and a Quick, you have the pieces to be a playoff threat. Loser points and league-mandated parity and all that...

Toffoli and Pearson need to be consistent secondary threats, and if Phaneuf plays like he did post-acquisition, they'll be a threat.

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by ESQ » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:32 pm

Interesting point, is Kopitar a better better than Henrik?

If Kopitar goes back to 50ish points for the rest of his contract, he will be a boat-anchor.

But if he gets a couple more seasons of his career average 70-75 points, they may continue to have a shot at the postseason. I guess that's the big question in LA, even more so than whether Brown goes from 60 points back to 30 points.

I happen to think the trend is much more likely to be steeply down, back to his 2014-2017 average of 63 points.

I should add, to my 14/15 Canucks comparison, both teams were also in the first year of new coaching regimes. I do believe that can have a big affect.

Before last season's miracle, Kopitar was looking like the worst contract in the league. It'll be very interesting to watch what happens.

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Blob Mckenzie » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:00 am

ESQ wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:32 pm
Interesting point, is Kopitar a better better than Henrik?

If Kopitar goes back to 50ish points for the rest of his contract, he will be a boat-anchor.

But if he gets a couple more seasons of his career average 70-75 points, they may continue to have a shot at the postseason. I guess that's the big question in LA, even more so than whether Brown goes from 60 points back to 30 points.

I happen to think the trend is much more likely to be steeply down, back to his 2014-2017 average of 63 points.

I should add, to my 14/15 Canucks comparison, both teams were also in the first year of new coaching regimes. I do believe that can have a big affect.

Before last season's miracle, Kopitar was looking like the worst contract in the league. It'll be very interesting to watch what happens.
Kopitar never looked like the leagues worst contract. Since he signed it he has averaged 72 points and won a Selke. Pull your head out of Docs ass and start fighting for some air. He’s 31 and had one crappy 50 point season in the last decade. His game isn’t reliant on speed so I don’t see the steep decline. Anyone that calls this a leagues worst contract when an Eriksson mulligan is staring him in the face is clearly trolling
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by micky107 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 6:45 am

Makes the Sedin contracts look not too shabby. ;)
But to nitpick, Kopitar's contract should have been about 8.5. Maybe 10 if for two less years.
And yes, I am considering the fairly steady point production and the good attendance.
Last edited by micky107 on Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Island Nucklehead » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:21 am

ESQ wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:32 pm
Interesting point, is Kopitar a better better than Henrik?

If Kopitar goes back to 50ish points for the rest of his contract, he will be a boat-anchor.

But if he gets a couple more seasons of his career average 70-75 points, they may continue to have a shot at the postseason. I guess that's the big question in LA, even more so than whether Brown goes from 60 points back to 30 points.

I happen to think the trend is much more likely to be steeply down, back to his 2014-2017 average of 63 points.

I should add, to my 14/15 Canucks comparison, both teams were also in the first year of new coaching regimes. I do believe that can have a big affect.

Before last season's miracle, Kopitar was looking like the worst contract in the league. It'll be very interesting to watch what happens.
Interesting discussion. Not sure how you could say Kopitar was looking like one of the worst deals in the league...

Over the past 10 seasons (C with 100+ GP):

1st in TOI
10th in Goals
7th in Assists
6th in points
12th in PPG (.9) T-with H.Sedin


1st in Shot attempts For
2nd in Shot attempts overall (SA For - SA against)

6th in faceoffs taken (52%)
12th in takeaways

All that to me suggests he's one of the better all-around players at his position. I don't think he'll be a 90-point player throughout his 30's, but he doesn't need to be a massive point producer to have a significant impact on the game. Like every elite player that is compensated as such, a significant drop off in play will spell trouble for their team.

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by ESQ » Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:32 am

I was talking about his drop from 70+ points in his contract year, to 52 points in year 1 of the $10 million deal. And as I mentioned, the three-year average was 63 points, before last season's breakout performance.

IMO, $10 million for 8 more years of 50ish points would be the worst contractb in the league, due to length and cap hit.

From the way he was trending, I really didn't expect a career year from him last season. I thought he'd start trending like Brown. Instead, both of them had career years in their 30s.

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Island Nucklehead » Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:16 am

ESQ wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:32 am
I was talking about his drop from 70+ points in his contract year, to 52 points in year 1 of the $10 million deal. And as I mentioned, the three-year average was 63 points, before last season's breakout performance.

IMO, $10 million for 8 more years of 50ish points would be the worst contractb in the league, due to length and cap hit.

From the way he was trending, I really didn't expect a career year from him last season. I thought he'd start trending like Brown. Instead, both of them had career years in their 30s.
I mean, he's had one "50ish" point season in his career.

And hey, his NMC becomes a modified NTC in at the end of 2019/2020, while his real salary averages "only" 7.5M per over the final four years. I don't think budget teams would be scared by a $10M cap hit, if the real money is in the Jason Spezza/Zach Parise/Rick Nash range.

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by UWSaint » Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:32 am

ESQ wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:32 pm
Interesting point, is Kopitar a better better than Henrik?
Yes. Henrik is retired....

Joking aside, they were a wash in terms of offense. Kopitar has a better shot; Henrik was arguably the best passer in the league during his peak seasons (age 27-33). But Kopitar is excellent in that category as well. Both slow the game down, both are strong on the puck (again, we are talking about Henrik 7 years ago, as he is 7 years older), both can create off the cycle.

But the edge in my view goes to Kopitar because he is a GREAT defensive center.

Anze Kopitar is everything Jonathan Toews is reputed to be (but is not as good at). He makes $500,000 less. And while Toews is showing wear and tear while being only 30, Kopitar isn't slowing down and he plays a game (like Henrik -- great awareness and ability to absorb physical play) that keeps him healthy and is the game that should translate throughout the term of his contract. Its a good contract.
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Blob Mckenzie
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Blob Mckenzie » Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:48 am

ESQ wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:32 am
I was talking about his drop from 70+ points in his contract year, to 52 points in year 1 of the $10 million deal. And as I mentioned, the three-year average was 63 points, before last season's breakout performance.

IMO, $10 million for 8 more years of 50ish points would be the worst contractb in the league, due to length and cap hit.

From the way he was trending, I really didn't expect a career year from him last season. I thought he'd start trending like Brown. Instead, both of them had career years in their 30s.
Yes let’s focus on his one 50 point season where the whole team played poorly and assume that will be the norm. What was the three year average for points before the 52 point season? Or what was the three year average with the 92 point season included but the 52 point season removed? You seem to only focus on the guy’s one poor season in a decade.
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by Strangelove » Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:48 am

Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:32 am
Strangelove wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:32 pm
Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:14 pm
Why is it that these polls seem to close very quickly?
Ahh so once again you wanted to change your vote (lower) because the results were not to your liking.

Ahh so once again you wanted to disagree with the zealot cultists. When a member of the anti-haters runs a poll we shut it down after the zealots quickly vote in it.
So Commander Corn is a "zealot cultist"?? :shock:

PS: You are paranoid.

PPS: You are suffering from PMS (Pissing & Moaning Syndrome) :mex:
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by BladesofSteel » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:02 pm

Is this poll closed? I just voted and it seemed to work.

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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by micky107 » Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:14 pm

18/19 is creepin up Doc!
Yes; That's where I went. Why?
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Re: When will the Canucks Next make the playoffs

Post by ESQ » Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:38 pm

Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:48 am
Yes let’s focus on his one 50 point season where the whole team played poorly and assume that will be the norm. What was the three year average for points before the 52 point season? Or what was the three year average with the 92 point season included but the 52 point season removed? You seem to only focus on the guy’s one poor season in a decade.
I considered the 64 point/12 goal season at age 27 to be a poor season. Not surprisingly, the Kings also missed the playoffs that year.
UWSaint wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:32 am
But the edge in my view goes to Kopitar because he is a GREAT defensive center.
Well, one thing in Henrik 's favor is that his offensive peak was higher than Kopitar's. In Kopitar's best-ever season, he was 5th amongst centers for scoring, whereas Hank ran away with the Ross in his peak year.

And Kopitar's defensive play is up-and-down as well. In his down year, he finished 15th for Selke voting, and won it last year. When his offence wasn't going, his defensive play wasn't good enough to drag the Kings to the playoffs.
Anze Kopitar is everything Jonathan Toews is reputed to be (but is not as good at). He makes $500,000 less. And while Toews is showing wear and tear while being only 30, Kopitar isn't slowing down and he plays a game (like Henrik -- great awareness and ability to absorb physical play) that keeps him healthy and is the game that should translate throughout the term of his contract. Its a good contract.

I'd say Kopitar was looking far worse than Toews in 16/17, slow and battered and old. I'd say its as likely that Toews throws down a career year next year as it is likely that Kopitar goes back to 60/70 points. One year can significantly change the perception of a player (no better example than 52-point Kopitar vs. 92-point Kopitar!)

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