Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Strangelove » Thu May 17, 2018 8:28 pm

Ronning's Ghost wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 6:59 pm
I don't want to imply I think it's important, because as I said, it's really just about that rate of progress that should be expected, but you (and my badly managed OCD) made me look it up.

The earliest version I could find of "Try to focus on 3 /4 years from now" was here:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10712&p=236423&hili ... on#p236423
Thanks Clifford for showing I started the "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" bit on July 1, 2015.

Moreover, thanks for displaying someone has a worse OCD problem than yours truly. :D

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by ESQ » Thu May 17, 2018 9:21 pm

Strangelove wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 8:28 pm
Ronning's Ghost wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 6:59 pm
I don't want to imply I think it's important, because as I said, it's really just about that rate of progress that should be expected, but you (and my badly managed OCD) made me look it up.

The earliest version I could find of "Try to focus on 3 /4 years from now" was here:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10712&p=236423&hili ... on#p236423
Thanks Clifford for showing I started the "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" bit on July 1, 2015.

Moreover, thanks for displaying someone has a worse OCD problem than yours truly. :D

"The Canucks are being held hostage at the whim of a madman" lol y'gotta love me.
So what do you think then Doc, did you mean 2015/16 was the first of the 3/4 years?

I know that for me personally, I've been interpreting that as the end of the rebuild being in 18/19 or 19/20 from the get-go - the "now" in "from now" in July 2015 meant the upcoming 2015/16 season.
Ronning's Ghost wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 7:06 pm
I'd also like to reiterate that while there is certainly a luck component to injuries, in my opinion many people on this board tend to overstate the luck component, and undervalue durability as an athletic attribute in a contact sport. I consider their resistance to injury in the face of relentless abuse to be a significant factor in the Sedins' greatness.
Maybe we "tend to overstate luck", but keep in mind this is a team where a great defenceman was bitten by the only snake in Finland and had 2 teammates' shots deflect and injure him - one smashing his face and fracturing orbital bone, one rupturing his testicle.

This is a team where the best prospect in 18 years broke his thumb on a breakaway at the Worlds.

A team where Ryan Kesler's hand was shredded his first game back due to a slash, and tried to get the team doctors to cut off his finger.

Even the Boeser injury was bad luck - no athletic attribute of Brock's would have closed the bench door behind him. Without the door being open, there's probably no damage at all from the

Injuries like groins and backs can typically be avoided through training, knees as well to a certain extent. But broken bones from weird bounces/deflections, slashes, and open bench doors cannot be avoided by athletic attribute. He could have avoided being knocked down on the hit, but that's not what hurt him, it was the bench door that made the hit catastrophic.

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Blob Mckenzie » Thu May 17, 2018 9:24 pm

ESQ wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 5:03 pm
Blob Mckenzie wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 4:19 pm
Is that why they missed this season?

Bad luck?
No, but I think bad luck played a role in the Canucks not finishing in the 80-ish point range.

Despite missing 6 of their top-9 forwards and half their top-4D for 30ish games, they managed to climb 4 spots in the standings. I think with a bit of luck, even just Boeser finishing the season, we would have seen clearer evidence of improvement by the team.

Everything had to go right for the Canucks to make the playoffs. Instead, in true Canuck fashion, everything went wrong and they still improved on the last 2 years.

If they don't make the playoffs next year, but jump another 4 spots in the standings, that would put them closer to but still outside the playoff picture. That would be a fine outcome and is a reasonably likely prediction.

I don't think the Canucks will have the huge jump in the standings that we saw with the Oilers post-McDavid draft (going from 70 points to 103 pts), or the Leafs post-Matthews draft (69 points to 95 points). Maybe something more like the Jets post-Laine draft (78 points to 87 points to playoffs).

If the Canucks regress next season, I'll consider factors outside of Benning's control in considering my opinion of his performance - particularly injuries and whether Peterssen makes the jump. If the team stays healthy and Peterssen has a minimal impact at the NHL level, then I'll be concerned.
Ronning's Ghost wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 2:51 pm
ESQ wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm
Next year is year-5 of the Benning Regime. And if Benning pulls it off and gets the Canucks back in the playoffs, he is a genius.
Fair enough. And it he doesn't ?
If the team shows continued improvement, I think its evidence of genius, but is more controvertible.
Ronning's Ghost wrote:
Mon Jul 31, 2017 11:23 pm

That's not the way Doc describes the countdown above.
Strangelove wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm

I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" back in 2015.

(in 2016 it was "... 2-3 years", in 2017 it was "... 1-2 years", now it is 0-1 years)
3 years from 2016 is 2019.
2015/16 - 3-4 years prediction is made - takes us to 2018/19 season or 2019/20 season.

Doc clarified this as well in his post:
Strangelove wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 2:22 pm
I believe I started saying "Try to focus on 3-4 years from now" in November/December 2015 when Canucks were struggling.
I personally think the odds of Doc's shorter timeline (i.e., making playoffs next year, 2018/19) has been made much more unlikely by the retirement of the Sedins. I do believe the acquisition of one great player at either center, defence, or goaltending could push the current squad into the playoffs next season, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that to happen.
Horvat missed 18 games
Boeser missed 18 games
Daniel was healthy
Henrik was healthy
Samwise was healthy- got nicked for a few
Birdbones missed 20
Sven missed 29
Louis missed 32
Vanek player 60 and only missed 21 because he was dealt for an AHL player.

Granlund is absolutely not better than any of those guys and not worthy of top 9 ice time

Your 6 of the top 9 guys missing 30 games each doesn’t add up to the smell test.

There are only two top 4 d men. Tanev missed a half season.

Real Dud missed half a season but the team was probably better when he wasn’t lumbering around like a Peterbilt
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Strangelove » Thu May 17, 2018 9:47 pm

^ Blobby doing a little work for a change, someone must be getting to him. :)
ESQ wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:21 pm
So what do you think then Doc, did you mean 2015/16 was the first of the 3/4 years?

I know that for me personally, I've been interpreting that as the end of the rebuild being in 18/19 or 19/20 from the get-go - the "now" in "from now" in July 2015 meant the upcoming 2015/16 season.
I predicted we'd make the playoffs in 2018-19... but that doesn't mean the rebuild is completely over at that point.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Island Nucklehead » Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 am

ESQ wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:21 pm
Maybe we "tend to overstate luck", but keep in mind this is a team where a great defenceman was bitten by the only snake in Finland and had 2 teammates' shots deflect and injure him - one smashing his face and fracturing orbital bone, one rupturing his testicle.

This is a team where the best prospect in 18 years broke his thumb on a breakaway at the Worlds.

A team where Ryan Kesler's hand was shredded his first game back due to a slash, and tried to get the team doctors to cut off his finger.

Even the Boeser injury was bad luck - no athletic attribute of Brock's would have closed the bench door behind him. Without the door being open, there's probably no damage at all from the

Injuries like groins and backs can typically be avoided through training, knees as well to a certain extent. But broken bones from weird bounces/deflections, slashes, and open bench doors cannot be avoided by athletic attribute. He could have avoided being knocked down on the hit, but that's not what hurt him, it was the bench door that made the hit catastrophic.
lol because the Canucks are the only team that suffers fluke injuries. Sami Salo was not Erik Karlsson (sliced by Matt Cooke's skate/lost half his ankle bone). Ryan Kesler was our second-line C; it's not like we lost a Crosby (puck to the face, multiple concussions). RG has pointed out that our two best players where remarkably healthy for most of their careers. Take the good with the bad.

Yes, Boeser's injury was bad luck, but is anyone shocked that Peterssen, at 107 pounds, suffered a broken bone on an innocent play? C'mon.

Shit happens. Every team suffers injuries.

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by SKYO » Fri May 18, 2018 12:32 pm

Some random offers from other teams fans.

Hutton a slew of offers of meh.

Some interesting ones.

Bruins Lauzon and a 4th for Granlund.
2nd for Baertschi
Tanev to Leafs for a 1st, 2nd, 2nd.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Reefer2 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:35 pm

Tanev to Oilers for 10th.

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by micky107 » Fri May 18, 2018 12:37 pm

SKYO wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 12:32 pm
Some random offers from other teams fans.

Hutton a slew of offers of meh.

Some interesting ones.

Bruins Lauzon and a 4th for Granlund.
2nd for Baertschi
Tanev to Leafs for a 1st, 2nd, 2nd.
I would consider one and/or two but I think the Leafs can do better?
Oh ya, forgot, the Leafs pick 25th.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by UWSaint » Fri May 18, 2018 12:53 pm

Island Nucklehead wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 am

Shit happens. Every team suffers injuries.
Island Nucklehead wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 am
Shit happens. Every team suffers injuries.
But the Canucks are a top 3 team the 2 of the past 3 seasons and in the top 5 the other season for forwards/defensemen games lost to injury. I don't know how much is something controllable (e.g., training causing injuries or bad training exposing to injury), uncontrollable but not random (e.g., correlation to travel -- note Anaheim lost the most forward/defense games last season), and simply random.

It is difficult to take stock in the team or the rebuild when there were portions of the season that so many players are out at once. Horvat, Baerstchi, Sutter, and Dorsett all disappear at the same time and a decent start turns into a total catastrophe. Players play outside of their roles or without true roles, and it snowballs.

The thing is that last year's team was deeper than the team 2 years ago or 3 years ago -- the addition of cheap players whether effective (Vanek) or meh (Ganer) or not (Burmistrov) still meant that the team could absorb more injuries than in years past. But they didn't have the depth for the 2/3 of the checking line and 2/3 of the first line getting wiped out all at the same time. That effects good teams; it destroys mediocre teams.

But what we saw when they were healthy and fully stocked was a competitive team -- not for a playoff spot, but night in and night out. That's a far cry from 2016-17, when although they had a hot start, it was almost pure luck as the team began the season by winning games they were outplayed in.

The goal this offseason, I think, it to reinforce some of that lost depth (that wasn't deep enough). They aren't good enough to make the move now. The way to do it is by taking on a couple contracts from players that can play but their team needs cap space or has internal payroll pressures. Get picks are sweetners to take the contracts. Do this so the young guys have to (1) compete for spots on the roster and (2) when they are on the roster, that they can have roles that will give them some opportunity to succeed.
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by ESQ » Fri May 18, 2018 1:04 pm

Island Nucklehead wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 am

lol because the Canucks are the only team that suffers fluke injuries. Sami Salo was not Erik Karlsson (sliced by Matt Cooke's skate/lost half his ankle bone). Ryan Kesler was our second-line C; it's not like we lost a Crosby (puck to the face, multiple concussions).
And how did the Senators, and more importantly the Penguins, do when Karlsson and Crosby were dealing with those injuries?

I agree that injuries are part of hockey. I agree that the good teams will have the depth to overcome them. But even the Penguins didn't overcome Crosby's injuries with Malkin as the replacement.

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Ronning's Ghost » Fri May 18, 2018 1:36 pm

UWSaint wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 12:53 pm

But the Canucks are a top 3 team the 2 of the past 3 seasons and in the top 5 the other season for forwards/defensemen games lost to injury. I don't know how much is something controllable (e.g., training causing injuries or bad training exposing to injury), uncontrollable but not random (e.g., correlation to travel -- note Anaheim lost the most forward/defense games last season), and simply random.
You left out the part about whether more of the roster was fragile or robust. I don't know whether you missed it, dismissed it, or conceded it as obvious and unworthy of comment.

My point is that professional hockey players need to be not only strong and fast (and have many other athletic qualities, besides), but also physically durable. We often use size as a proxy for this trait, but it's only an approximation.

Hence Blob's relentless criticism of Sutter (or at least, that seems to be part of the reason) and my own insistence, shared by some here, that the Canucks need to extract value from Tanev while he can still play hockey. It's probably the only reason Anton Rodin is not an NHL player.

The Canucks need to hire some bright young Human Kinetics Ph.D. and see if they can find some non-invasive (or minimally invasive) physical measurement that predicts resistance to injury in the NHL. For a while, some NFL teams were using knee circumference as a the best predictor they could find of an offensive lineman's career length; they may have something better now. The Canucks need to find a hockey analogue, and exploit the information.

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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by micky107 » Fri May 18, 2018 2:09 pm

These days, the shifts are shorter but harder and faster.
In retrospect, one could say the player of today is very different then that of say 20 years ago, hence one would think game preparation and between game activities have altered accordingly.
But I don't think they really have.
I think bringing in an expert, or two, to really scrutinize the situation here in Vancouver would be a great idea.
There is a certain laid back almost too comfy life style here and that has, for the most part, always been a bit of a dilemma.
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Post by UWSaint » Fri May 18, 2018 2:20 pm

My categories are predictable and controllable, predictable but beyond control, random. An individual player's injuries could be any of them. Maybe they are out of shape (predictable and controllable). Maybe they play beserker hockey (predictable and controllable). Maybe they have had mutiple knee injuries (predictable, now beyond control). Most of the time, injuries just happen.

The Sedins largely avoided injuries because they stayed in great shape and had GREAT on ice awareness. Everything they could control, they did.
They didn't get blindsided much because they were never blind. They didn't throw their bodies around much (though they went to dirty places) -- they aren't getting Boeser's injury with a wild off balance bounce off the other player check. They didn't block shots -- one missed time under Torts, iirc, because he had everyone blocking shots. Players like that are less likely to get injured, but they were still very lucky.

The idea that Sutter's general physique makes him more injury prone strikes me as likely pseudo-science. When the Canucks traded for him, he had missed just a handful of games in his 7 year professional career. Close to an ironman. Sutter's body type hasn't changes. I doubt he's lost athleticism. Its just bad luck. And I would be very reluctant to take much from the NFL, where superhuman sized people undergo repeated direct physical contact. Hockey isn't that. At all. You take a check every once in awhile and give a few, too. Not 65 times in a row of pounding and getting pounded by other superhuman sized people.

Tanev, well, that might be another story..... He's got a bit of Sami Salo in him.... But not the shot!
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Re: Trade rumours & armchair pipe dreams 17-18 Sponsored by SKYO

Post by Island Nucklehead » Fri May 18, 2018 2:26 pm

UWSaint wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 12:53 pm

The goal this offseason, I think, it to reinforce some of that lost depth (that wasn't deep enough). They aren't good enough to make the move now. The way to do it is by taking on a couple contracts from players that can play but their team needs cap space or has internal payroll pressures. Get picks are sweetners to take the contracts. Do this so the young guys have to (1) compete for spots on the roster and (2) when they are on the roster, that they can have roles that will give them some opportunity to succeed.
Couldn't agree more.

ESQ wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:04 pm
Island Nucklehead wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 6:54 am

lol because the Canucks are the only team that suffers fluke injuries. Sami Salo was not Erik Karlsson (sliced by Matt Cooke's skate/lost half his ankle bone). Ryan Kesler was our second-line C; it's not like we lost a Crosby (puck to the face, multiple concussions).
And how did the Senators, and more importantly the Penguins, do when Karlsson and Crosby were dealing with those injuries?

I agree that injuries are part of hockey. I agree that the good teams will have the depth to overcome them. But even the Penguins didn't overcome Crosby's injuries with Malkin as the replacement.
Kind of my point. Try having some real problems. We bitch a lot about injuries always derailing our season, but our best players (the Sedins) have, for the most part, been healthy and resilient. When Keith elbowed Daniel prior to the playoffs, that's the kind of thing that is crushing to a franchise, not losing a Sven Baertshi in November for 10 games.

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Post by SKYO » Fri May 18, 2018 3:30 pm

UWSaint wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 2:20 pm
The Sedins largely avoided injuries because they stayed in great shape and had GREAT on ice awareness. Everything they could control, they did.
They didn't get blindsided much because they were never blind. They didn't throw their bodies around much (though they went to dirty places) -- they aren't getting Boeser's injury with a wild off balance bounce off the other player check. They didn't block shots -- one missed time under Torts, iirc, because he had everyone blocking shots. Players like that are less likely to get injured, but they were still very lucky.

Tanev, well, that might be another story..... He's got a bit of Sami Salo in him.... But not the shot!
Good coaches won't make ALL their players block shots, that's just asking for injuries, it's also why you don't see many superstars killing penalties much until the last few seconds of the kill.

Yup the Sedins had superb anticipation of hits and their legs were built like tanks, they knew when a hitter was coming and slowed right down to control the play, it's part of their training regime, iirc one of their training techniques is they like to bike from south van to grouse mountain early mornings, also their cycle game mixed with passing helped keep the high flying hitters away from them.

But onto Tanev, he has bad awareness of hitters, especially retrieving the puck on dump ins, where the high flying hitters are in their area of expertise, the new icing rule helps him, but yeah he has to learn to anticipate hits from forecheckers when retrieving the puck in his own zone.
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