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Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:06 pm
by RoyalDude
I think there is a distinction to be made between a completed rebuild (a contender in the playoffs) and the prospect pool rebuild.

I believe, well I do believe that even winning teams should never neglect keeping their prospect pool strong. I believe that what Yzerman is doing in Tampa is how GMs of winning teams should manage the now and future. He has a great prospect pool which allows him to make the odd rental trade at the deadline without badly damaging the future.

You look at what Doug Wilson has done in San Jose, and I'm just not a fan of that style of GM'ing. He's had OK success I guess but they have the worst prospect pool in the league and the Kane trade made it that much worse, especially if he doesn't resign. Wilson has $20 million in cap space to work with so he can totally overpay Kane to save face (which I think he will, he knows Benning can't compete in a Kane overpayment) but the Sharks have problems in the near future with that crap prospect pool.

Anyhow I believe the future "core" rebuild will be in place with the 2018 draft. But considering the development of these kids in the pool the complete rebuild (cup contenders) is right on track if you consider the 7 year suggested length starting with the 2013/2014 seasons. I also think we will be in tough to make the playoffs in 2019 as well but I look at the 2019 draft as more of a bonus to the rebuild. The core rebuild should be completed with the 2018 draft. However Benning needs to continually be adding lots of prospects to the pool the way StevieY has so when it comes time for him to be a TDL buyer he can do so without damaging the prospect pool

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:47 pm
by Blob Mckenzie
Honestly though, they still need some more high end kids in the system even though it’s better than it has been for years. Ideally they get a top 4 pick and don’t deviate away from Dahlin or one of the top 3 forwards. Dahlin would be ideal but ANY of the other three would fill a need of elite talent up front. I’ve had a bit of a change of heart about moving Tanev or Edler. The team is a garbage fire with them on it. Tear the bandaid off and for fuck sakes let the twins walk. How much worse can it get by letting the twins walk and trading Tanev and Edler ? Recoup picks, clear a massive amount of cap and sign an Ian Cole type or two in July and maybe a veteran forward with an edge. I actually had a thought about trading for Shea Weber but The didn’t realize he had eight years left on that contract. I could have stomached maybe five or six more years but not eight. Elmer needs to reshape that defence big time. Ideally he drafts Dahlin and then adds another first in a Tanev trade. I’d move Baertschi and Granlund for whatever picks I could get.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:56 pm
by RoyalDude
I agree about Tanev and Edler. I believe Dahlin makes that very real. I also see no place on the team for Granlund and Hutton. They are not Travis Green players. Baertschi is and may get immunity.

Trading Edler at next years TDL makes total sense, a pending UFA, getting picks to excite the home crowd at the 2019 draft.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:55 pm
by DonCherry4PM
Hey, rikster, I do agree that going all youth with no veteran presence is a recipe for disaster but, that said, there is quite a range between what the Canucks have done and what the Oilers have (using them as the paramount example of a team going all in with youth). Since JB's inception as GM I, along with many on here, would have preferred that the Canucks move more of the veteran presence for assets and particularly picks in whatever round they may be.
rikster wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:12 am
...I can't understand all of the angst over not trading players for late round picks was about...Core players aren't found in the later rounds...
Contrary to your sentence above, there have been quite a few late round picks who have turned into core players. Even if we dispense with the 3rd round - e.g. Richards (3rd), Quick (3rd), Messier (3rd), Lidstrom (3rd), Roy (3rd) - there have been a number of core players that have been drafted in the "late" rounds - Gaudreau (4th), Visnovsky (4th), Kurri (4th), Federov (4th), Recchi (4th), Robitaille (4th), Hejduk (4th), Kiprusoff (5th), Miller (5th), Klindberg (5th), Benn (5th), Tocchet (6th), Alfredsson (6th), Datsyuk (6th), Hull (6th), Campbell (6th), Markov (6th), Bure (6th) [weird circumstances, I know], Gilmour (7th), Pavelski (7th), Lundqvist (8th), Byfuglien (8th), Zetterberg (8th), Bondra (8th), Fleury (8th), Rinne (9th), Ericsson (9th), and Hasek (10th). Perhaps we should define exactly what "core" means, but I think that most of the above players would qualify unless you pair it down to "franchise" players only.

I would agree that the percentage chance of acquiring a core player is less in the later rounds than in the earlier rounds, but there is still a chance of acquiring a core player in those later rounds. Combine that chance with JB's drafting acumen (which most, if not all, feel is much better than the average GM), and the hope is that such combination could result in more core players.

Hell, just ask Dude. Apparently, Gaudette (5th) is already a generational talent. :lol: Hence, JB has already found a core player in the 5th round. Just imagine what he could do with more late round picks!

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2018 2:49 pm
by rats19
We are 3 points from 18% shot at Dahlen

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:42 pm
by Island Nucklehead
RoyalDude wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:56 pm
Trading Edler at next years TDL makes total sense, a pending UFA, getting picks to excite the home crowd at the 2019 draft.
If Edler is to be moved, I’d pressure him to accept/dictate a trade destination this summer. He may appreciate having a full season with a new team, or even negotiating an extension as part of the deal (post July 1). More teams will think they have a chance to compete, more teams have cap space, and teams wouldn’t be thinking about where they’d be picking at the 2019 draft.

You’d also avoid the Hamhuis shit-show from a couple years ago.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:58 am
by rikster
C
ontrary to your sentence above, there have been quite a few late round picks who have turned into core players. Even if we dispense with the 3rd round - e.g. Richards (3rd), Quick (3rd), Messier (3rd), Lidstrom (3rd), Roy (3rd) - there have been a number of core players that have been drafted in the "late" rounds - Gaudreau (4th), Visnovsky (4th), Kurri (4th), Federov (4th), Recchi (4th), Robitaille (4th), Hejduk (4th), Kiprusoff (5th), Miller (5th), Klindberg (5th), Benn (5th), Tocchet (6th), Alfredsson (6th), Datsyuk (6th), Hull (6th), Campbell (6th), Markov (6th), Bure (6th) [weird circumstances, I know], Gilmour (7th), Pavelski (7th), Lundqvist (8th), Byfuglien (8th), Zetterberg (8th), Bondra (8th), Fleury (8th), Rinne (9th), Ericsson (9th), and Hasek (10th). Perhaps we should define exactly what "core" means, but I think that most of the above players would qualify unless you pair it down to "franchise" players only.
I don't think anyone said that there weren't needles in the haystack, just understand that they have a very low risk of playing 100 NHL games let alone becoming impact players...

For sh*ts and giggles, I took a look at the 2010/2011 Canucks team that won the Presidents Trophy and got to game 7....

It had 11 first round draft picks on it, the highest being the twins at 2nd and 3rd overall....

It also had 2 2nd round picks, so 13 of its roster were taken in the first two rounds of the draft...

Take care...

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:14 am
by rats19
So the other 12 were in later rounds I guess

About 45% of team made up of after 2nd rounders

Just an observation

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:59 pm
by DonCherry4PM
rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:58 am
I don't think anyone said that there weren't needles in the haystack, just understand that they have a very low risk of playing 100 NHL games let alone becoming impact players...
I was just responding to your statement that:
rikster wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:12 am
Core players aren't found in the later rounds...
To be fair, upon re-examination I see that you did also note that
rikster wrote:
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:12 am
...core players are almost always found in the first two rounds of the draft ...
I guess it depends upon what you mean by "almost always". Sure, the percentages are lower the farther down the draft you go, but as noted in my previous post (which wasn't an exhaustive list) a lot of core players have been found beyond the first two rounds. I would submit that those numbers equate to more than "needles in a haystack".
rikster wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:58 am
For sh*ts and giggles, I took a look at the 2010/2011 Canucks team that won the Presidents Trophy and got to game 7....

It had 11 first round draft picks on it, the highest being the twins at 2nd and 3rd overall....

It also had 2 2nd round picks, so 13 of its roster were taken in the first two rounds of the draft...
It's definitely true that 4 of the core players on that team were first rounders (Twins, Kesler and Luongo) but even that team had a couple "core" players that were drafted beyond rounds one and two. I would think that both Edler (3rd) [ATIO: 24:17, PTS: 33] and Ehrhoff (4th) [ATIO: 23:59, PTS: 50] would fall into the "core" category. As well , if Hamhuis (1st) [ATIO: 22:41, PTS: 23] were included, then I would think Bieksa (5th) [ATIO: 22:28, PTS: 22] would also. Anyway, the point is that of the top (or "core") 6 players, 2 were drafted outside of the first two rounds.


In short (but not really):

1) I agree that,all else being equal, there is a greater likelihood of drafting core players in the first 2 rounds of the draft;

but

2) I feel that JB is a better than average drafter (some might even say "genius");

and

3) it follows that JB's picks in the lower (and higher) rounds should have a higher likelihood of turning into core players than those of an average or less than average drafter;

therefore,

4) I want to see JB with as many draft picks as possible (no matter their position in the draft).


In short (really this time): More picks = :thumbs:

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:46 am
by Madcombinepilot
I am so sorry, but with only a 18% chance (thats 'actual' chance, not the 'NHL hates us' chance - which is 'zero') to get 1st overall pick, I just can't Get behind the 'tank' mentality. I would rather try and win and lose because we suck, than play or be coached to lose.

I hope We don't finish last. Anything but last. I accept we will never win the lottery to get 1st overall pick, and will move forward with that acceptance of my belief.

I hate fucking losing.

Until they change the lottery system, I say we play to win.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:16 pm
by DonCherry4PM
Madcombinepilot wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:46 am
I am so sorry, but with only a 18% chance (thats 'actual' chance, not the 'NHL hates us' chance - which is 'zero') to get 1st overall pick, I just can't Get behind the 'tank' mentality. I would rather try and win and lose because we suck, than play or be coached to lose.

I hope We don't finish last. Anything but last. I accept we will never win the lottery to get 1st overall pick, and will move forward with that acceptance of my belief.

I hate fucking losing.

Until they change the lottery system, I say we play to win.
What do you define as the "tank" mentality?

Do you define is as trading veteran/aging assets for young players and picks which is likely to result in fewer wins now but projects better later on (i.e. what many here have been suggesting)? Or do you define it to be doing whatever is necessary to lose in order to get the best possible draft pick? Or do you define it as something else?

For me, I don't want the team to try to lose but so long as we aren't anywhere close to being competitive, I'd rather get a guaranteed higher draft pick (if we are last, we are guaranteed to have no worse than 4th) than have the bragging rights of not being last. I'd rather take the worse pain now in hopes that it will go away sooner. Rip the band-aid clean off so to speak in hopes that healing will be quicker.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:19 pm
by micky107
Madcombinepilot wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:46 am
I am so sorry, but with only a 18% chance (thats 'actual' chance, not the 'NHL hates us' chance - which is 'zero') to get 1st overall pick, I just can't Get behind the 'tank' mentality. I would rather try and win and lose because we suck, than play or be coached to lose.

I hope We don't finish last. Anything but last. I accept we will never win the lottery to get 1st overall pick, and will move forward with that acceptance of my belief.

I hate fucking losing.

Until they change the lottery system, I say we play to win.
Yup: You and almost all the season's ticket holders, I would think. There is no-way they can be blamed for feeling that way.
Everyone knows winning is fun but it's a business too. Doesn't have to be all the time but enough to send the signal of what can be.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 12:29 pm
by Cornuck
So how does a team "tank" - is it the GM making bad moves to make the team worse? Is it the coach benching better players? Is it the team deciding as a whole to give up?

Other than giving more ice time to younger players for the purpose of evaluating them, I don't see the GM and coach having much say at this point. We have a number of young players who might be playing their way on or off the team with these last games.

So I can see a team not putting in effort on the last game if meant drafting #1 or #2 - but the lottery gets rid of that.

In the meantime, you have a team full of pros who have spent their whole lives being ultra competitive and hate losing. Are they suddenly going to 'tank'? There might less incentive to take that huge hit or block a shot, but the more they do that, the more the 'losing culture' creeps in.

So will the team tank? I don't think so - we just suck right now.

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:58 pm
by Uncle dans leg
Fuck that. Tank this bitch through to the end...we're right there.

The top line for the rest of the season :
Dowd, Gagger and gaunce

We dont score again this season.

Tanking with a purpose will show the HGs that we are fully commited to the sucking.

Next year we Vegas the shit out of our roster

Re: The Rebuild...

Posted: Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:02 pm
by Cornuck
Uncle dans leg wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:58 pm
The top line for the rest of the season :
Dowd, Gagger and gaunce

Tanking with a purpose will show the HGs that we are fully commited to the sucking.
Taunt the HGs and that WILL be our first line due to injuries....