The Rebuild...

[Cousin Strawberry]

Whats the latest on the Sedins retirement? Last nights game was my first in a while and what i saw out of those 2 made the final twitches of Iginlas career look dazzling.

They cant seriously be consideing coming back when their wheels/skills/strength have erroded this bad...can they? Can they????

[rikster]

3/ Sedins are for sure coming back
4/ Edler will still be a top 3 D man with or without Tanev here. Depth d man lol !!!!!!


Awesome, keep the same slugs that have stunk for the better part of five years. No need to change it up. Get the band back together.

They’ve shown amazing loyalty to a crappy core. So much ‘leadership’ and ‘culture’ it’s impossible to imagine the team has been worse than even Arizona and Colorado the past 3 seasons. Even worse when you realize we’ve spent to the cap every season and those other two haven’t been close. It’s hard to be this bad!

Trade vets, sign short term UFAs (1 year deals, not 3 or even 2), keep playing the kids. The future is now.

Hey DieHard, with all due respect you could do that but so what?

The key is the core, everything around it is secondary until they find at least a half dozen elite players to form the core...

What team you ice while waiting to find your core players is debatable but understanding that those core players are almost always found in the first two rounds of the draft and accepting that they need to nail the next two drafts they are at least 2 to 3 years away from being ready to compete again....

If they nail the next two drafts and the 3 or 4 blue chip prospects already in the system turn into core players to join Horvat and Boeser, then it will have taken 6 to 7 years to rebuild the team which means that Shane Malloy was spot on when he predicted a 7 to 10 year period....

The secondary players will look alot different in 3 years so I'm not getting worked up in the meantime over whose playing on the third and fourth lines or who the top 4 on the blue line are because they likely won't be here when the team is ready to compete...

It is why the term of the Gudbranson contract made sense to me....

Which is why I can't understand all of the angst over not trading players for late round picks was about...Core players aren't found in the later rounds...

Linden/Benning/Green believe that it's better the kids are in an environment with veteran character players beside them rather than filling the roster with all kids, I agree with them...

Once they have their core group, filling spots around them isn't nearly as difficult....Look at the Black Hawks or the Penguins...

Both have or had an elite group of core players and they have recycled players around them to fill out their rosters and comply with the salary cap...

The Black Hawks core group has gotten smaller and it is on the backside of their careers and the team is now fighting for a playoff spot...

It will be interesting to see how they handle the next few years and if they go down the road the Canucks did post 2011...Like the Canucks those core players have expensive, long term no movement contracts and they are all getting older....

Will they learn from the likes of the Canucks and look to unload say a Kane or Toews if it means that they can get a good return or do they keep moving secondary players in and out of the lineup trying to find majic in a bottle like the Canucks have done?

Take care...

[Chef Boi RD]

Yeah I forget who it was they had on 1040 some draft Guru a couple weeks back, he basically said that where the Canucks were with the current contracts on aging players, awful prospect pool and lack of young players on the team he thought in his mind at the time it was a 7 year rebuild from when Benning took over

[Ronning's Ghost]

they are at least 2 to 3 years away from being ready to compete again....

Opinions on that vary.

[rikster]

Yeah I forget who it was they had on 1040 some draft Guru a couple weeks back, he basically said that where the Canucks were with the current contracts on aging players, awful prospect pool and lack of young players on the team he thought in his mind at the time it was a 7 year rebuild from when Benning took over

I mentioned in another post that in the 10 years prior to Bennings arrival the team has drafted 2 elite players....Horvat and Schneider and because they traded Schneider to draft Horvat they have 1 elite player on their roster who was drafted in those 10 years...

When you look at it that way it's easy to understand where the 7 to 10 year predictions came from...

Take care...

[Chef Boi RD]

I think there is a distinction to be made between a completed rebuild (a contender in the playoffs) and the prospect pool rebuild.

I believe, well I do believe that even winning teams should never neglect keeping their prospect pool strong. I believe that what Yzerman is doing in Tampa is how GMs of winning teams should manage the now and future. He has a great prospect pool which allows him to make the odd rental trade at the deadline without badly damaging the future.

You look at what Doug Wilson has done in San Jose, and I'm just not a fan of that style of GM'ing. He's had OK success I guess but they have the worst prospect pool in the league and the Kane trade made it that much worse, especially if he doesn't resign. Wilson has $20 million in cap space to work with so he can totally overpay Kane to save face (which I think he will, he knows Benning can't compete in a Kane overpayment) but the Sharks have problems in the near future with that crap prospect pool.

Anyhow I believe the future "core" rebuild will be in place with the 2018 draft. But considering the development of these kids in the pool the complete rebuild (cup contenders) is right on track if you consider the 7 year suggested length starting with the 2013/2014 seasons. I also think we will be in tough to make the playoffs in 2019 as well but I look at the 2019 draft as more of a bonus to the rebuild. The core rebuild should be completed with the 2018 draft. However Benning needs to continually be adding lots of prospects to the pool the way StevieY has so when it comes time for him to be a TDL buyer he can do so without damaging the prospect pool

[Blob Mckenzie]

Honestly though, they still need some more high end kids in the system even though it’s better than it has been for years. Ideally they get a top 4 pick and don’t deviate away from Dahlin or one of the top 3 forwards. Dahlin would be ideal but ANY of the other three would fill a need of elite talent up front. I’ve had a bit of a change of heart about moving Tanev or Edler. The team is a garbage fire with them on it. Tear the bandaid off and for fuck sakes let the twins walk. How much worse can it get by letting the twins walk and trading Tanev and Edler ? Recoup picks, clear a massive amount of cap and sign an Ian Cole type or two in July and maybe a veteran forward with an edge. I actually had a thought about trading for Shea Weber but The didn’t realize he had eight years left on that contract. I could have stomached maybe five or six more years but not eight. Elmer needs to reshape that defence big time. Ideally he drafts Dahlin and then adds another first in a Tanev trade. I’d move Baertschi and Granlund for whatever picks I could get.

[Chef Boi RD]

I agree about Tanev and Edler. I believe Dahlin makes that very real. I also see no place on the team for Granlund and Hutton. They are not Travis Green players. Baertschi is and may get immunity.

Trading Edler at next years TDL makes total sense, a pending UFA, getting picks to excite the home crowd at the 2019 draft.

[DonCherry4PM]

Hey, rikster, I do agree that going all youth with no veteran presence is a recipe for disaster but, that said, there is quite a range between what the Canucks have done and what the Oilers have (using them as the paramount example of a team going all in with youth). Since JB's inception as GM I, along with many on here, would have preferred that the Canucks move more of the veteran presence for assets and particularly picks in whatever round they may be.

...I can't understand all of the angst over not trading players for late round picks was about...Core players aren't found in the later rounds...

Contrary to your sentence above, there have been quite a few late round picks who have turned into core players. Even if we dispense with the 3rd round - e.g. Richards (3rd), Quick (3rd), Messier (3rd), Lidstrom (3rd), Roy (3rd) - there have been a number of core players that have been drafted in the "late" rounds - Gaudreau (4th), Visnovsky (4th), Kurri (4th), Federov (4th), Recchi (4th), Robitaille (4th), Hejduk (4th), Kiprusoff (5th), Miller (5th), Klindberg (5th), Benn (5th), Tocchet (6th), Alfredsson (6th), Datsyuk (6th), Hull (6th), Campbell (6th), Markov (6th), Bure (6th) [weird circumstances, I know], Gilmour (7th), Pavelski (7th), Lundqvist (8th), Byfuglien (8th), Zetterberg (8th), Bondra (8th), Fleury (8th), Rinne (9th), Ericsson (9th), and Hasek (10th). Perhaps we should define exactly what "core" means, but I think that most of the above players would qualify unless you pair it down to "franchise" players only.

I would agree that the percentage chance of acquiring a core player is less in the later rounds than in the earlier rounds, but there is still a chance of acquiring a core player in those later rounds. Combine that chance with JB's drafting acumen (which most, if not all, feel is much better than the average GM), and the hope is that such combination could result in more core players.

Hell, just ask Dude. Apparently, Gaudette (5th) is already a generational talent. Hence, JB has already found a core player in the 5th round. Just imagine what he could do with more late round picks!

[rats19]

We are 3 points from 18% shot at Dahlen

[Island Nucklehead]

Trading Edler at next years TDL makes total sense, a pending UFA, getting picks to excite the home crowd at the 2019 draft.

If Edler is to be moved, I’d pressure him to accept/dictate a trade destination this summer. He may appreciate having a full season with a new team, or even negotiating an extension as part of the deal (post July 1). More teams will think they have a chance to compete, more teams have cap space, and teams wouldn’t be thinking about where they’d be picking at the 2019 draft.

You’d also avoid the Hamhuis shit-show from a couple years ago.

[rikster]

C

ontrary to your sentence above, there have been quite a few late round picks who have turned into core players. Even if we dispense with the 3rd round - e.g. Richards (3rd), Quick (3rd), Messier (3rd), Lidstrom (3rd), Roy (3rd) - there have been a number of core players that have been drafted in the "late" rounds - Gaudreau (4th), Visnovsky (4th), Kurri (4th), Federov (4th), Recchi (4th), Robitaille (4th), Hejduk (4th), Kiprusoff (5th), Miller (5th), Klindberg (5th), Benn (5th), Tocchet (6th), Alfredsson (6th), Datsyuk (6th), Hull (6th), Campbell (6th), Markov (6th), Bure (6th) [weird circumstances, I know], Gilmour (7th), Pavelski (7th), Lundqvist (8th), Byfuglien (8th), Zetterberg (8th), Bondra (8th), Fleury (8th), Rinne (9th), Ericsson (9th), and Hasek (10th). Perhaps we should define exactly what "core" means, but I think that most of the above players would qualify unless you pair it down to "franchise" players only.

I don't think anyone said that there weren't needles in the haystack, just understand that they have a very low risk of playing 100 NHL games let alone becoming impact players...

For sh*ts and giggles, I took a look at the 2010/2011 Canucks team that won the Presidents Trophy and got to game 7....

It had 11 first round draft picks on it, the highest being the twins at 2nd and 3rd overall....

It also had 2 2nd round picks, so 13 of its roster were taken in the first two rounds of the draft...

Take care...

[rats19]

So the other 12 were in later rounds I guess

About 45% of team made up of after 2nd rounders

Just an observation

[DonCherry4PM]

I don't think anyone said that there weren't needles in the haystack, just understand that they have a very low risk of playing 100 NHL games let alone becoming impact players...

I was just responding to your statement that:

Core players aren't found in the later rounds...

To be fair, upon re-examination I see that you did also note that

...core players are almost always found in the first two rounds of the draft ...

I guess it depends upon what you mean by "almost always". Sure, the percentages are lower the farther down the draft you go, but as noted in my previous post (which wasn't an exhaustive list) a lot of core players have been found beyond the first two rounds. I would submit that those numbers equate to more than "needles in a haystack".

For sh*ts and giggles, I took a look at the 2010/2011 Canucks team that won the Presidents Trophy and got to game 7....

It had 11 first round draft picks on it, the highest being the twins at 2nd and 3rd overall....

It also had 2 2nd round picks, so 13 of its roster were taken in the first two rounds of the draft...

It's definitely true that 4 of the core players on that team were first rounders (Twins, Kesler and Luongo) but even that team had a couple "core" players that were drafted beyond rounds one and two. I would think that both Edler (3rd) [ATIO: 24:17, PTS: 33] and Ehrhoff (4th) [ATIO: 23:59, PTS: 50] would fall into the "core" category. As well , if Hamhuis (1st) [ATIO: 22:41, PTS: 23] were included, then I would think Bieksa (5th) [ATIO: 22:28, PTS: 22] would also. Anyway, the point is that of the top (or "core") 6 players, 2 were drafted outside of the first two rounds.


In short (but not really):

1) I agree that,all else being equal, there is a greater likelihood of drafting core players in the first 2 rounds of the draft;

but

2) I feel that JB is a better than average drafter (some might even say "genius");

and

3) it follows that JB's picks in the lower (and higher) rounds should have a higher likelihood of turning into core players than those of an average or less than average drafter;

therefore,

4) I want to see JB with as many draft picks as possible (no matter their position in the draft).


In short (really this time): More picks =

[Madcombinepilot]

I am so sorry, but with only a 18% chance (thats 'actual' chance, not the 'NHL hates us' chance - which is 'zero') to get 1st overall pick, I just can't Get behind the 'tank' mentality. I would rather try and win and lose because we suck, than play or be coached to lose.

I hope We don't finish last. Anything but last. I accept we will never win the lottery to get 1st overall pick, and will move forward with that acceptance of my belief.

I hate fucking losing.

Until they change the lottery system, I say we play to win.