15/16 Canucks at the 1/4 point vs. 1/2 point vs 3/4 point

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15/16 Canucks at the 1/4 point vs. 1/2 point vs 3/4 point

Postby ESQ » Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:39 am

I thought I would do this again, I found it interesting to take snapshots of the team at varying points last year, and see who dropped off, who improved, and the ups and downs of the team.

Team Stats
9-8-0-6 in 23 gp, 21st in the league with 24 points (2014-15: 33 points)
16-16-0-9 in 41 GP, 24th in the league with 41 points (2014-15: 49 points)
25-27-12 in 64 Gp, 25th in the league with 62 points
6-2-3 vs the West, 4-0-2 vs the Pac, 2-2-1 vs Central, 3-6-3 vs the East
8-8-5 vs the West, 6-3-3 vs Pac, 2-5-2 vs Central, 8-8-4 vs the East
12-15-5 vs the West, 8-8-3 vs Pac, 4-7-2 vs Central, 13-12-7 vs the East

If the playoff cutoff is 95 points, the Canucks needed 71 points in 59 games.
To reach 95 points, the Canucks need 44 points in 41 games
31 points in 18 games - so you're saying there's a chance!

PP%: 21.0, 7th in the NHL (how did that happen??)
Halfway: 16.7%, 25th in the NHL
3/4: 18/6%, 15th in NHL
PK%: 78.9, 21st in the NHL
Halfway: 78.8%, 23re in the NHL
3/4: 81.7%, 12th in NHL
FO%: 48.1, 28th in the NHL
Halfway: 45.3%, good for dead last!
3/4: 45.4%, still dead last

The special teams have flipped from the same point last year, with a rising PP and a sinking PK. Faceoffs are actually slightly worse than last year. Sutter was at 53.6%, Sedin at 52.2, Horvat at 49.5, but McCann and Cracknell each take about 7 FO/game and are below 38%.
Halfway: The PP has crashed back down to earth. Hank has dropped on FO to 47.2, Horvat is up to 50.8, McCann is 33.0, Cracknell at 38. Vey has come in and takes 12 faceoffs/game and has improved from last season to 43.3
3/4: Special teams are respectable. Hank continues to struggle in the dot (injury?), dropping to 45.2, BoHo maintaining at 50.2, McCann at 35.5, Vey continues to improve to 46.9

Canucks sat8th for goals for, 13th for shots against, 5th for shots for.
Halfway: 25th for goals, 9th for GA, 9th for shots against, 19th for shots for
3/4: 27th for GF, 10th for GA, 3rd for SA, dropped to 26th for shots for

Individual Stats
Hank wason pace for 25 g and 78 points.
At half point, on pace for 18g and 70 points
On pace for 13g and 63 points in 76 games
Daniel wason pace for 36g and 89 points.
At half point, on pace for 34g and 76 points
On pace for 32g, 79 points
Hansen wason pace for 25g and 50 points.
At half point, on pace for 24 g and 44 points
On pace for 25g and 42 points in 75 games

Sutter wason pace for 19g and 38 points (in 75 games).
At half point, on pace for 14g and 29 points (in 57 games)
Still out :(
Vrbata wason pace for 23g and 42 points.
At half point, on pace for 21g and 37 points
On pace for 16g and 32 points
Burrows is on pace for 18g and 41 points.
At half point, on pace for 10g and 25 points
On pace for 10g and 22 points
Horvat wason pace for 7g and 29 points.
At half point, on pace for 10g and 26 points (and -38!!)
On pace for 13g and 37 points
Prust is on pace for 0g and 30 points.
At half point, on pace for 2g and 17 points
Buh bye
Baertschi wason pace for 19g and 29 points.
At half point, on pace for 13g and 29 points
On pace for 17g and 32 points in 74 games

McCann wason pace for 23g and 34 points.
At half point, on pace for 15g and 23 points
On pace for 9g and 20 points
Dorsett wason pace for 7g and 18 points.
At half point, on pace for 6g and 14 points
On pace for 4g and 14 points
Cracknell/Virtanen/Higgins are all on pace for under 20 points.
Virtanen should crack 20 points

Edler is on pace for 15g and 48 points.
At half point, on pace for 12g and 34 points
On pace for 8g and 27 points in 70 games
Hutton is on pace for 0g and 32 points.
Hutton hasn't scored a point since the quarter point, stuck on 9 assists
Hutton heated up again, scoring 12 points in his last 16 games and is now on pace for 28 points

The projections are only included as a benchmark for later in the season.

Compared to last year, the Sedins are again off to a great start. Vrbata's production is down, but he's heating up with 5 points in last 5 games. Hansen was off to a hotter start last year, and obviously cooled off significantly.
Sedins and Hansen are still cooking, Vrbata is salvaging a decent 2nd-liner season.

Top line production is excellent, on of the top-5 in the League. 2nd line production is down from last year at the same point (remember Bonino's insane start?) but, if maintained, is still in the top-third of the League. If the third line finishes around 30 points, that will also be excellent production from them.
The second line has struggled mightily. Its really a team with two 3rd lines, with only the first line and Vrbata likely to crack 40 points.

The big change from last year is offense from the D. Last year the D were all ice-cold, and it didn't look like any of them would crack 30 points until Edler heated up at the end of the year.

In net, Miller is middle of the pack for GAA and SV% amongst starters. He was flying out of the gate, but had a couple of bad games on the last road trip that dropped him out of the top 5 for goalie stats. Most concerning is the 7-7-5 record, compared to 15-3-0 last season. Markstrom has not been great, but he's given better backup goaltending than Lack did at the same point last year.
Markstrom has played his best hockey since the Miller injury, going 4-2 in that stretch.
Miller has come back strong, and both goalies are providing solid 'tending on a bad team.

At this point, I'd be very concerned that the playoffs are already slipping away. The Canucks need to go roughly 36-23, a 64% winning percentage, to make 95 points. The large number of OTLs probably means the Canucks won't win any tie-breakers in the standings. While the Pacific is tight this year, everybody has been gaining ground during this slump.

Injuries have definitely been a factor, with each of the Top-6D having missed time, and Prust, Vrbata and Sutter dealing with injuries.

But as others have pointed out, the biggest problem is the record in one-goal games and choking on 3rd period leads. One or two of those games that got away could make the difference in making the postseason.
Last edited by ESQ on Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:57 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby theman » Thu Nov 26, 2015 11:47 am

Where's McCann?
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby ESQ » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:39 pm

Added - I was cutting and pasting trying to arrange by lines (such as they are) and forgot to put McCann back.

23g/34 point pace so far.
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby Strangelove » Thu Nov 26, 2015 10:59 pm

Interesting, thanks for this ESQ. :thumbs:
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby ESQ » Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:37 am

Although apparently the Canucks have a 75% chance of making the playoffsby virtue of being in the playoffs on American Thanksgiving.

That would mean Anaheim and Arizona have less than a 25% chance of getting in.
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby rats19 » Fri Nov 27, 2015 10:50 am

If I had to pick one team currently holding a spot that I think will drop out, it’d be Vancouver.

— If I had to pick a second, it’d be the Canucks.

Also in link ^^^
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby ESQ » Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:21 am

rats19 wrote:If I had to pick one team currently holding a spot that I think will drop out, it’d be Vancouver.

— If I had to pick a second, it’d be the Canucks.

Also in link ^^^

Ah, the good ol' Kurtenbloggers!

(though really, I don't think many would disagree with that!)
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby rats19 » Fri Nov 27, 2015 11:44 am

ESQ wrote:
rats19 wrote:If I had to pick one team currently holding a spot that I think will drop out, it’d be Vancouver.

— If I had to pick a second, it’d be the Canucks.

Also in link ^^^

Ah, the good ol' Kurtenbloggers!

(though really, I don't think many would disagree with that!)

Nope....
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby damonberryman » Fri Nov 27, 2015 2:39 pm

rats19 wrote:
ESQ wrote:
rats19 wrote:If I had to pick one team currently holding a spot that I think will drop out, it’d be Vancouver.

— If I had to pick a second, it’d be the Canucks.

Also in link ^^^

Ah, the good ol' Kurtenbloggers!

(though really, I don't think many would disagree with that!)

Nope....


One can hope because a lottery pick is something we need. Of course it will not be number one because the Coil have that wrapped up for the next ten drafts as their compensation for living in Edmonton. :D
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby Tiger » Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:05 pm

Lofty prediction... We make a Wild card playoff spot ..

I was going over the roster looking to see who is playing better than last year.. about the same as last year or disappointing and pleasant surprises .

Better ? Hansen, Sbisa ( couldn't play worse than last year ) Dorsett, Tanev..
about same.. Sedins , Burrows, Higgins,Edler,
disappointing .. Weber, Bo Horvat, Vrbata..
Pleasant surprises .. Cracknell, McCann, Hutton, Prust
Not sure .. Sutter , Baetschi, Bartkowski, Virtanen,
Goaltending . ok .. not great .. not bad..

I think the team will improve over the year.. Rookies making less mistakes and can see a trade to bring in a good Dman .. Probably ok for forwards if Virtanen and McCann start producing again..
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby Rumsfeld » Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:10 pm

Edler is way worse than he was last year.

And no, we aren't making the playoffs or getting a top-5 pick. We are in limbo like the Flames of yesteryear.
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby ESQ » Fri Nov 27, 2015 3:22 pm

Tiger wrote:Lofty prediction... We make a Wild card playoff spot ..

disappointing .. Weber, Bo Horvat, Vrbata..

it will be interesting to see how many teams make it out of the Pacific this year, I'd predict both Western Wild Cards will come from the Central Division. That being said, 3rd in the Pacific will be wide open (as it was last year).

Also, I think Horvat could be moved into your "about the same" category, as he only had 25 points (in 68 games) last year. Both Horvat and Vrbata had brutal Octobers, and both have come on strong in November - BoHo with 6 points in 12 games, Vrbata with 6 points in 10 GP. I think Vrbata will wind up around 50 points and Horvat will surpass 30 points.
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby Tiger » Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:24 pm

ESQ wrote:
Tiger wrote:Lofty prediction... We make a Wild card playoff spot ..

disappointing .. Weber, Bo Horvat, Vrbata..

it will be interesting to see how many teams make it out of the Pacific this year, I'd predict both Western Wild Cards will come from the Central Division. That being said, 3rd in the Pacific will be wide open (as it was last year).

Also, I think Horvat could be moved into your "about the same" category, as he only had 25 points (in 68 games) last year. Both Horvat and Vrbata had brutal Octobers, and both have come on strong in November - BoHo with 6 points in 12 games, Vrbata with 6 points in 10 GP. I think Vrbata will wind up around 50 points and Horvat will surpass 30 points.


Only reason I put Horvat on the "disappointing" list is because he came on at the end of last year and had a great preseason. I expected too much maybe ? ..
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby Rumsfeld » Fri Nov 27, 2015 4:31 pm

Tiger wrote:
ESQ wrote:
Tiger wrote:Lofty prediction... We make a Wild card playoff spot ..

disappointing .. Weber, Bo Horvat, Vrbata..

it will be interesting to see how many teams make it out of the Pacific this year, I'd predict both Western Wild Cards will come from the Central Division. That being said, 3rd in the Pacific will be wide open (as it was last year).

Also, I think Horvat could be moved into your "about the same" category, as he only had 25 points (in 68 games) last year. Both Horvat and Vrbata had brutal Octobers, and both have come on strong in November - BoHo with 6 points in 12 games, Vrbata with 6 points in 10 GP. I think Vrbata will wind up around 50 points and Horvat will surpass 30 points.


Only reason I put Horvat on the "disappointing" list is because he came on at the end of last year and had a great preseason. I expected too much maybe ? ..


Well, he's still very young Tiger.

I mean you've gotta cut a teenager some slack, even if they're not up to your standards.

Say, are you still on "vacation" in Thailand?
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Re: 15/16 Canucks at the Quarter Point

Postby Strangelove » Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:54 pm

Rumsfeld wrote:Well, he's still very young Tiger.

I mean you've gotta cut a teenager some slack, even if they're not up to your standards.

Say, are you still on "vacation" in Thailand?


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