Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

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Meds
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Meds » Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:32 pm

ukcanuck wrote:
Meds wrote:
Guys like Zack are pretty key to teams who have playoff success. They come on later in the year and storm into April. Those are the players that lighten the load for the top line guys so that come playoff time there is still gas in the tank for your best players.
That would be the dream when it comes Kassian. If they make the playoffs and draw an Anaheim or Kings, they would certainly need Kassian to provide that physical scoring threat that we used to look to Kesler for. Otherwise it will be tough on the Sedins as they will have targets on their backs.
That was the biggest flaw in the GMMG, AV, approach. As soon as the refs pocketed the whistles we saw those targets get bigger and hit more often, but because of the philosophy of win with skill and make them pay on the PP we had no response and our top guys were too beat up to finish strong in the final 4 games.

I would very much like to see what happens in the playoffs if those same targets get painted but WillieD and Benning tell the team to protect one another, to hell with pay back on the PP, go stand up for your bothers. Would the Sedins suddenly become more effective if that message is being sent back the other way and all of a sudden guys like Toews, Keith, Doughty, Kopitar, Thornton, Marleau, Couture, Perry, and Getzlaf, are getting the same treatment that they and their teammates give the Sedins. Would anything change?

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by herb » Sun Feb 22, 2015 11:00 pm

Right now it's looking like $3M X 4 would be a bargain for Matthias. This will be his big contract that will take him to 31 or 32 years old. If he keeps his current pace and ends the season with 17 or goals and 30 points, I think we can afford him. If he goes on some stupid hot streak and ends up with 20+ goals, forget about it. Some GM will look him up on hockeydb and get stupid. Who knows, maybe he loves Vancouver and takes a discount. When he first came here he was gushing over the chance to play in a Canadian market.

I'd like Matthias back, but Benning would have to make room, cap wise. I think I like him better than Hansen, Burrows and Higgins, at this stage. Burrows is probably not going anywhere. He's not an ideal 3rd line center, but he could look good with Bo on that third line going forward.

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Strangelove » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:03 am

I like Matthias.

Hey, he was in every trade Luongo proposal I made pre-Luongo-trade.

He is a great 3rd-liner, large, versatile, and hard-working.

I wouldn't go a dime over $3M-per on him though (3-4 year deal).

Cuz yeah: 3rd-liner.

And yeah, we've got plenty of those.

Obviously we'd be looking to off-load one or both of Higgins/Hansen if we re-sign him.

If he's looking for more than that much, I say sell high on him at the deadline.

I like him alright, but he's no asshole.

There's only one asshole in this gif:

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Can you spot the asshole? :blush:
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Hockey Widow » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:19 am

Strangelove wrote:I like Matthias.

Hey, he was in every trade Luongo proposal I made pre-Luongo-trade.

He is a great 3rd-liner, large, versatile, and hard-working.

I wouldn't go a dime over $3M-per on him though (3-4 year deal).

Cuz yeah: 3rd-liner.

And yeah, we've got plenty of those.

Obviously we'd be looking to off-load one or both of Higgins/Hansen if we re-sign him.

If he's looking for more than that much, I say sell high on him at the deadline.

I like him alright, but he's no asshole.

There's only one asshole in this gif:

Image

Can you spot the asshole? :blush:
The guy with the vintage Hawks jersey taking a cell phone photo??
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by mathonwy » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:35 am

Regarding Shawn Matthias,

I think it's very much to the Canuck's interests to sign this guy for a long term contract on a 5 or 6 year contract for market rate.

The reason I say this is based on some research I did on Shawn.

I looked at his junior career with the Belleville Bulls and found some pretty interesting information.
His last year with the Bulls was in 07/08 where he had 32G/47A/79P. This put him 3rd on the team in scoring behind Adam Perry (who?) and Matt Beleskey of the Anaheim Ducks.

- Beleskey had 41G/49A/90P.
- In 06/07, he had 38G/35A/73P and Beleskey had 27/41/68P.
- In 05/06, he had 13G/21A/34P and Belesky had 20/20/40P

So what this data implies to me is that Matt Beleskey is a good comparison of Shawn Matthias. The two players are similar age and developed as players at a VERY similar rate playing on the same junior team. The main difference right now is, Beleskey was obviously drafted by a much better team which has led to a 163 career point differential between the two players. Over the span of 6 NHL seasons, this equals to a staggering 27 point difference per season. In his last year of junior, the point difference between Beleskey and Matthias was only 11 points and the year before that, Matthias outscored Beleskey by 5 points

So my hypothesis is this:

If Matthias had been drafted by a better team, his career stats would be a LOT better than they are right now. Florida seriously has been a rudderless team for almost all its NHL existence while Anaheim is an example of one of the best run teams.

Beleskey has been absolutely tearing it up on the Ducks this season being a fixture on their top 6 splitting playing time between Perry/Geztlaf and Kesler/Palmieri. Considering how similar the two players were in junior, I can definitely see Matthias as a top 6 player and maybe even a top 3 player. Another thing to also take into consideration is that Beleskey has had much more talented players to play in Anaheim then Matthias and Beleskey is only 8 points ahead of him.

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by ukcanuck » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:56 am

Meds wrote:
ukcanuck wrote:
Meds wrote:
Guys like Zack are pretty key to teams who have playoff success. They come on later in the year and storm into April. Those are the players that lighten the load for the top line guys so that come playoff time there is still gas in the tank for your best players.
That would be the dream when it comes Kassian. If they make the playoffs and draw an Anaheim or Kings, they would certainly need Kassian to provide that physical scoring threat that we used to look to Kesler for. Otherwise it will be tough on the Sedins as they will have targets on their backs.
That was the biggest flaw in the GMMG, AV, approach. As soon as the refs pocketed the whistles we saw those targets get bigger and hit more often, but because of the philosophy of win with skill and make them pay on the PP we had no response and our top guys were too beat up to finish strong in the final 4 games.

I would very much like to see what happens in the playoffs if those same targets get painted but WillieD and Benning tell the team to protect one another, to hell with pay back on the PP, go stand up for your bothers. Would the Sedins suddenly become more effective if that message is being sent back the other way and all of a sudden guys like Toews, Keith, Doughty, Kopitar, Thornton, Marleau, Couture, Perry, and Getzlaf, are getting the same treatment that they and their teammates give the Sedins. Would anything change?
I am all for old time hockey but it think its a dangerous game that could easily backfire when its all about retaliation. A better scenario is having a legitimate scoring threat other than the Sedins who can draw unwanted attention away from the first line. Kesler was supposed to be that guy but he didn't seem to be able to be a shut down forward and a consistent scoring threat at the same time (Nashville series notwithstanding.)

I would love to see Kassian become that threat in a seven game series (not the shut down bit), and I don't think its out of the question. It seems like he has the skill level and in a 7 gamer he would have the time to get used to a role, where to be without the puck and who he has to be aware of coming back.

Its a dream anyway :crazy:

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Hockey Widow » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:06 am

Given Matthias age you don't give him a 5-6 year deal. If you do you run the risk of a Higgins/Burrows contract situation. Decent to some extent in the top six and good in the bottom six, but too many of them. I would like to re-sign him to a three year, no more than four if we have to, to no more more than a cap hit of 2.5-3 million. If we do that I'd let Richardson go, Mattias is a centre, and trade at least one of Higgins, Burrows or Hansen. My preference would be to trade Higgins.

I'd bring Dorsett back if we can as well. I'd be all over trading Vey. We have some good prospects coming up soon but I'd like those that can get time in Utica and the others, unless they Bo you away, send back to junior.

But if we could bring Dorsett and Matthias back for 3 years, jettison Higgins and Richardson we clean up the bottom six and free up a couple of roster spots, maybe Kenins and Jensen or Gaunce.

You use those 3 years to get Virtanen, Cassels, McCaan ready.
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by ClamRussel » Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:07 am

Hockey Widow wrote:I'd bring Dorsett back if we can as well. I'd be all over trading Vey. We have some good prospects coming up soon but I'd like those that can get time in Utica and the others, unless they Bo you away, send back to junior.

But if we could bring Dorsett and Matthias back for 3 years, jettison Higgins and Richardson we clean up the bottom six and free up a couple of roster spots, maybe Kenins and Jensen or Gaunce.

You use those 3 years to get Virtanen, Cassels, McCaan ready.
Vey's gotta go but I doubt there's much demand for a small skilled center who brutal on the draw. Perhaps they can bundle him w/ Kassian when this showcase wraps up next week.

Bonino is a guy they should move to a contender for a prospect or decent pick. He'd command value for the playoffs. I'd be more than happy rolling Hank - Matthias - Horvat - Richardson for the home stretch. They're winning w/o Bonino right now and Horvat will have the 2 spot soon enough.
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Topper » Mon Feb 23, 2015 3:29 am

Hockey Widow wrote:But if we could bring Dorsett and Matthias back for 3 years, jettison Higgins and Richardson we clean up the bottom six and free up a couple of roster spots, maybe Kenins and Jensen or Gaunce.

You use those 3 years to get Virtanen, Cassels, McCaan ready.
I think that has been Benning's plan since since he was hired. The names of the vets may change here or there, but the slots are the same.

You only need to look at expiring contract dates to figure it out. The trick is to get some value other than cap space for the expiring deals. cap space means more stop gap or auditions ala Bonino/Vey/Miller...

The key contract this year will be Tanev. I could see someone ponying up +$4mill/yr for Mathias (big decent skating centre/wing with hands and a brain, solid on the PK and still some offensive upside), he will be tempted to seek that out.
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by dbr » Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:42 am

Hockey Widow wrote:
Can you spot the asshole? :blush:
The guy with the vintage Hawks jersey taking a cell phone photo??
I was going to post that! :lol:

And the reading glasses! Plus, I don't think the Hawks have ever even worn that jersey.. back when they wore black-and-whites the Blackhawk face was inside a circle.

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by herb » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:18 am

Strangelove wrote:Can you spot the asshole? :blush:
The big fat slob in the lower left hand corner.

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by mathonwy » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:35 pm

Hockey Widow wrote:Given Matthias age you don't give him a 5-6 year deal. If you do you run the risk of a Higgins/Burrows contract situation.
Higgins (31G/7G/19A/26P):
We're getting good value for Higgins. He is on a reasonable contract @ 2.5M for 4 years with a limited NTC and has been utilized almost exclusively as a 2nd line player. Comparables are:
- Mikael Boedker (25Y/14G/14A/28P)
- Brandon Prust (30Y/4G/9A/13P)
- Matt Cooke (36Y/4G/40A/8P)
- Brayden Schenn (23Y/11G/23A/34P)


Burrow's (33Y/12G/13A/25P): We're not getting good value for Burrows. His contract @ 4.5M for 4 is too much for his current year production. Comparables are:
- David Backes (30Y/19G/21A/40P)
- Teddy Purcell (29Y/8G/19A/27P)
- Erik Cole (36Y/17G/14A/31P)
- Max Pacioretty (26Y/29G/23A/52P)
- Martin Erat (33Y/8G/18A/26P)

I don't share your concern of signing Matthias to Burr/Higgins contract mainly because all three players bring different skillets and are in different contract situations. Higgins = Good Value. Burr = Bad value combined with signing for 4 additional years at age 32.

Matthias is 26 and as I've shown in my research, his classification as a 3rd line player may be due to a stunted player development process in Florida. His junior numbers paralleled that of Matt Beleskey and Matt currently is a top 6 player on Anaheim. The main difference between Beleskey and Matthias is height with Beleskey at 6'0 and Matthias 6'4.

Are you firm in your opinion of Matthias as a 3rd line player with some top 6 talent? Because I'm not. Based on how aggressive he's playing right now and how easy he's making it look I think Matthias is ready to bust out as a 50+ point player. A current player that I see as similar to Matthias is Wayne Simmonds. Simmonds has much better career numbers but he's also played for much better organizations in the Kings and the Flyers. Anther interesting stat is Matthias's OHL numbers are MUCH better than Simmonds. There's a 47 point difference in their last season of junior.

I'd like to see Desjardins bump him up to the 2nd line to play with Vrbata and Bonez (when he comes back) to see what can do. We could have a diamond in the rough in Matthias.

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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Topper » Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:01 pm

mathonwy wrote:
Hockey Widow wrote:Given Matthias age you don't give him a 5-6 year deal. If you do you run the risk of a Higgins/Burrows contract situation.
Higgins (31G/7G/19A/26P):
We're getting good value for Higgins. He is on a reasonable contract @ 2.5M for 4 years with a limited NTC and has been utilized almost exclusively as a 2nd line player. Comparables are:
- Mikael Boedker (25Y/14G/14A/28P)
- Brandon Prust (30Y/4G/9A/13P)
- Matt Cooke (36Y/4G/40A/8P)
- Brayden Schenn (23Y/11G/23A/34P)


Burrow's (33Y/12G/13A/25P): We're not getting good value for Burrows. His contract @ 4.5M for 4 is too much for his current year production. Comparables are:
- David Backes (30Y/19G/21A/40P)
- Teddy Purcell (29Y/8G/19A/27P)
- Erik Cole (36Y/17G/14A/31P)
- Max (26Y/29G/23A/52P)
- Martin Erat (33Y/8G/18A/26P)
Mathowny, good to see you back and with your head still firmly trapped inside your colon.

How are the groups you picked comparable?

What does 31 year old Higgins have in common with 25 year old Boedker and 23 year old Braydon Schenn?
How are Brandon Prust's and Matt Cooke's playing styles anything like Higgins?

How is 6'3" 215lbs top line centre David Backes comparable to Burrows?
How is four year younger Teddy Purcell on one of the worst teams in the league comparable to Burrows?
Pacioretty is seven years younger for fucks sake.
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Strangelove » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:49 pm

herb wrote:
Strangelove wrote:Can you spot the asshole? :blush:
The big fat slob in the lower left hand corner.
*bing*

Stuffing his face, seat on the glass and listening to the game on the radio! :lol:

Tune in next week folks for another thrilling episode of...

Spot the Asshole
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Re: Trade Deadline 2015 - Canucks

Post by Tciso » Tue Feb 24, 2015 6:58 am

mathonwy wrote:Regarding Shawn Matthias,

I think it's very much to the Canuck's interests to sign this guy for a long term contract on a 5 or 6 year contract for market rate.
I have to challenge you on the 5-6 years. Mattias is a crash n bang player. I don't believe he has 5-6 good years in him. 3-4 is more likely. I also challenge you on "market rate". He's still a 3rd liner, and needs 3rd liner pay. That is not $3+mil per season. If Buffalo or Tarana want to over-pay him, let them. But, those kind of teams are not the market rate teams.
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