Canucks at the Quarter Point

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ESQ
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Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by ESQ » Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:40 pm

After a great start to the season, I thought it was time to pull some numbers:

Team Stats
16-6-1 in 23 gp. 1st overall in the NHL with 33 points.
10-5-1 vs the West, 7-2-1 vs the Pacific, 3-3-0 vs the Central

Obviously their record is well above most people's expectations (Sportsnet's "experts" had theCanucks finishing 17th.

If the playoffs cutoff is 95 points, the Canucks would need 62 points in 60 games.

Two of the 3 Central losses came early on against Colorado and Dallas. Its incredible that of 2 losses vs Pacific opponents, one was to the Coyotes!

PP: 17.3%, 19th in the NHL (5th in Pacific, 7th in West)
PK: 85.9%, 6th in the NHL (1st in Pacific, 4th in west)
FO%: 48.9%, 19th in the NHL

The PP has been dropping like a stone in November. The Canucks are 20th for # of PP opportunities, which may have some impact. Of note, the 2nd PP unit hasn't scored a pp goal since Burrows in the season opener.

The PK has been solid all year. FO% has been climbing out of the basement. Hank is at 50.9%, Bonino is at 47.1%, Richardson has improved drastically to 49%, and Horvat has been up and down, but is presently at 61.3% while averaging 11 FO/game. Vey...doesn't get to do faceoffs anymore.

The Canucks are the 4th-highest scoring team, 10th for Shots Against/game and 6th for Shots For/game.

Indvidual Stats

Hank is on pace for 19g and 78 points.
Daniel is on pace for 14g and 75 points.
Vrbata is on pace for 38g and 69 points.

Bonino is on pace for 25g and 68 points.
Burrows is on pace for 26g and 47 points.
Higgins is on pace for 18g and 53 points.

Richardson is on pace for 11g and 26 points (and -30)
Kassian is on pace for 9g and 22 points (and -22)
Matthias is on pace for 14g and 25 points (and -29)

Horvat is on pace for 7g and 28 points
Hansen is on pace for 30g and 34 points (!!)
Dorsett is on pace for 8g and 30 points.

I only included the projections as a benchmark to refer to later in the season, and put very little weight on them.

Obviously the big story is the bounce-back from Sedins and Burrows. Vrbata and Bonino have played well above expectations, and more than replace the loss of Kesler (at least offensively).

The team's scoring is presently at a near-ideal balance. Each line is producing in the top 1/3rd of the NHL (i.e. the 2nd line is in the top 10 2nd lines in the NHL). After a hot November, the "4th line" is probably the top-scoring 4th line in the league.

I haven't included the defensemen numbers, because the Canucks are getting very little offensive production from the D. For the past several years, the Canucks have had one 45+ point dman, and 2 or 3 40ish point dmen. This year Edler might be the only defenseman to crack 30 points.

In Net, Miller is in the bottom-third of the League's starting goalies for SV% and GAA, but leads the league with an incredible 15-3-0 record. He is tied for 3rd in the league with 3 Shutouts. Lack has struggled, with a 1-3-1 record and .894 SV%.

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Hockey Widow » Sat Nov 29, 2014 4:51 pm

Thanks for that!

Looking at the numbers it is easy to see why, when asked if he is satisfied, WD always says there is still room for improvement, we have to get better in all areas of our game, and be more consistent.

It is scary really, with so many obvious areas where we can improve, that we sit where we are. If we could move to the top ten in PP and FO% as well as get more points from the back end imagine how good we could be.

It also highlights how precarious our position is.

The PP has to be fixed somehow. When it's clicking it can be a thing of beauty. And therein lies the problem. The twins turn out to be penalty killers on our PP when it isn't clicking. It seems like everything is geared around trying to set up Vrbata and it has become too predictable. We need more than 1-2 set plays, mix it up, and way more shots from the point. But then again if it was that easy I'd be the coach :mrgreen:
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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Zamboni Driver » Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:25 pm

ESQ wrote:After a great start to the season, I thought it was time to pull some numbers:

In Net, Miller is in the bottom-third of the League's starting goalies for SV% and GAA, but leads the league with an incredible 15-3-0 record. He is tied for 3rd in the league with 3 Shutouts. Lack has struggled, with a 1-3-1 record and .894 SV%.
The Canucks are in 1st place on Black Friday despite some rather mediocre play from Miller early in the season.
If Benning is right and he is worth $6 million, he'll need some Vezina calibre play for Vancouver to go anywhere in the playoffs.
I expect Benning to try to pick up a player this year in a hockey trade (not a rental) with the leftover cap space.
Arachnid wrote:
It is a mediocre team that will probably not make the playoffs. You never predicted they would before the season and you cannot do so 20 games into the season.
I sure predicted that they'd be in the playoffs before the season, and I'm not buying this "overachieving and going to crash".
The Canucks are going to be in the playoffs, you can take that to the bank. 8-)

It will take a truly epic collapse for them to miss the playoffs, and I just don't see it.
If I'm wrong I'll buy you a beer. Hell, I'll buy the whole board a beer if I'm wrong :twisted:

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by damonberryman » Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:27 pm

It is interesting to see how they have turned around so much. I know it is only the quarter way point but nobody expected this. I think we got into the Vancouver Sports team "we are losers" mentality and we are basically whipped by 94 and 2011 as well as all the really bad years. I was there for all of them having lived near the Pacific Coliseum in 1970.

It is as if many of our fans, including those on this site cannot find the courage to back the team with whatever emotional resonance the result may incur. I read all sorts of long reasoned posts about how we are mediocre but the future is so bright we gotta wear shades. In my opinion that allows the fan to avoid the terrible fallout when we fail such as a couple of years ago.

On a personal note I have followed this team for over 40 years. I followed them when I worked for two years in the Sultanate of Oman and Northern Yemen. I subscribed to the old Hockey News and the Herald Tribune. I thought Moe Lemay was the second coming. I looked forward to all the drafts and knew all the names. It was in 2011 that I got devastated with other fans at how we lost so badly and had to put up with the rest of the Hockey world calling us soft and referring to the Sisters. I DID take it personally and joined this thread to express the hurt I felt and the disappointment in how the NHL kept the Nucks from playing the beautiful hockey they were capable of and allowed the thugs from Boston to win because frankly it was better for business. Christ, we are barely an afterthought in the Toronto based media.

In response to the fear which is also mine I started posting notes like "Ladies and Gentelmen....your 2014-2015 Stanley Cup Champions...the Vancouver Canucks" and then I would add :D :D :D ro :lol: :lol: :lol: or :drink: :drink: :drink: The response by the mods has been to disallow them. Now that is no big deal. That is their job, but I believe it is done out of superstition and fear.

So....LADIES AND GENTLEMEN....YOUR STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS....THE VANCOUVER CANUCKS

I hope it is received in the spirit it is meant to portray, that old Vancouver willingness to put my heart on the line again despite all the stupid statistical numbers. I love numbers too but it is heart that wins the trophy, not CORSI or some other bullshit some fool is making a name off of.

I am done ranting. Realistically there are teams who are more likely to win by the odds but how sweet it will be to win despite not being the favourite. (LA Kings anyone)

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Strangelove » Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:41 pm

Arachnid wrote: It is a mediocre team that will probably not make the playoffs. You never predicted they would before the season and you cannot do so 20 games into the season.
damonberryman wrote:It is interesting to see how they have turned around so much. I know it is only the quarter way point but nobody expected this.

...
It is as if many of our fans, including those on this site cannot find the courage to back the team with whatever emotional resonance the result may incur.
Time travel with me for a moment folks to 6 months ago:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=10079&hilit=outhous ... start=1335

(note: in the Great Strangelove's previous post he talked about his Canucks winning the Cup)

The Great Strangelove has been predicting a great season for his Vancouver Canucks since last season ended.

In fact, the Great Strangelove proved mathematically in the off-season

.... that it is exactly as far "from the penthouse to the outhouse" as it is "from the outhouse to the penthouse".

Slowly some of the less fortunate have moved from their McDavid fantasies to "Said all along: bubble team".

:roll:

But the Great Strangelove has never wavered (true, there were a few other playoff-predictors).

Can you imagine what might happen if two of Kassian/Horvat/Vey step up their game as the season progresses?

... along with two of Sbisa/Stanton/Weber/Addition?

Anything is possible in a league with a fair amount of parity.

(the Great Strangelove can prove the preceding sentence mathematically) :mrgreen:
____
GO CANUCKS GO!!!

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by rats19 » Sat Nov 29, 2014 7:38 pm

^^^^
Best fan ever.... :drink:
Getting old is not for the young...

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Topper » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:19 pm

rats19 wrote:^^^^
Best fan ever.... :drink:
Yes, he moves a lot of hot air.
Over the Internet, you can pretend to be anyone or anything.

I'm amazed that so many people choose to be complete twats.

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Strangelove » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:23 pm

I know it's difficult Topper, but TRY not to be jealous of the Great Strangelove. Image
____
GO CANUCKS GO!!!

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Arachnid » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:45 pm

rats19 wrote:^^^^
Best fan ever.... :drink:
Drunkest fan even :lol:
I love every move Jim Benning makes 8-)

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Chef Boi RD » Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:14 pm

Yeah this is a surprise, thought we'd be battling with Dallas and Minny for that 8th spot right about now.

Did not expect Nashville, Calgary and Winnipeg to be doing as well as they are, kind of had a feeling that San Jose would be on the decline this year and that the Avalanche would suffer a Sophomore jinx but not this much

Hope they can keep it up, we have the depth at forward now to roll four lines which is hugely important nowadays. The moves Benning has made have done better than I expected
"I just want to say one word to you. Just one word. Are you listening? - Plastics." - The Graduate

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Island Nucklehead » Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:35 pm

RoyalDude wrote:Yeah this is a surprise, thought we'd be battling with Dallas and Minny for that 8th spot right about now.

Did not expect Nashville, Calgary and Winnipeg to be doing as well as they are, kind of had a feeling that San Jose would be on the decline this year and that the Avalanche would suffer a Sophomore jinx but not this much

Hope they can keep it up, we have the depth at forward now to roll four lines which is hugely important nowadays. The moves Benning has made have done better than I expected
Sums up my thoughts as well Dude.

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Overtime » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:11 pm

damonberryman wrote:It is interesting to see how they have turned around so much. I know it is only the quarter way point but nobody expected this. I think we got into the Vancouver Sports team "we are losers" mentality and we are basically whipped by 94 and 2011 as well as all the really bad years. I was there for all of them having lived near the Pacific Coliseum in 1970.

It is as if many of our fans, including those on this site cannot find the courage to back the team with whatever emotional resonance the result may incur. I read all sorts of long reasoned posts about how we are mediocre but the future is so bright we gotta wear shades. In my opinion that allows the fan to avoid the terrible fallout when we fail such as a couple of years ago.

On a personal note I have followed this team for over 40 years. I followed them when I worked for two years in the Sultanate of Oman and Northern Yemen. I subscribed to the old Hockey News and the Herald Tribune. I thought Moe Lemay was the second coming. I looked forward to all the drafts and knew all the names. It was in 2011 that I got devastated with other fans at how we lost so badly and had to put up with the rest of the Hockey world calling us soft and referring to the Sisters. I DID take it personally and joined this thread to express the hurt I felt and the disappointment in how the NHL kept the Nucks from playing the beautiful hockey they were capable of and allowed the thugs from Boston to win because frankly it was better for business. Christ, we are barely an afterthought in the Toronto based media.

In response to the fear which is also mine I started posting notes like "Ladies and Gentelmen....your 2014-2015 Stanley Cup Champions...the Vancouver Canucks" and then I would add :D :D :D ro :lol: :lol: :lol: or :drink: :drink: :drink: The response by the mods has been to disallow them. Now that is no big deal. That is their job, but I believe it is done out of superstition and fear.

So....LADIES AND GENTLEMEN....YOUR STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS....THE VANCOUVER CANUCKS

I hope it is received in the spirit it is meant to portray, that old Vancouver willingness to put my heart on the line again despite all the stupid statistical numbers. I love numbers too but it is heart that wins the trophy, not CORSI or some other bullshit some fool is making a name off of.

I am done ranting. Realistically there are teams who are more likely to win by the odds but how sweet it will be to win despite not being the favourite. (LA Kings anyone)
OMG. you have sincerely tugged a heartstring. There is a tear in my eye..and I'm wondering why, for it never should be there at all.....with such power in your smile; sure a stone you'd beguile,so there's never a teardrop should fall. When Irish eyes are smiling; sure tis like the morn in spring! !!! Mr Pat Quinn!

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Meds » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:59 pm

Hockey Widow wrote:Thanks for that!

Looking at the numbers it is easy to see why, when asked if he is satisfied, WD always says there is still room for improvement, we have to get better in all areas of our game, and be more consistent.

It is scary really, with so many obvious areas where we can improve, that we sit where we are. If we could move to the top ten in PP and FO% as well as get more points from the back end imagine how good we could be.

It also highlights how precarious our position is.

The PP has to be fixed somehow. When it's clicking it can be a thing of beauty. And therein lies the problem. The twins turn out to be penalty killers on our PP when it isn't clicking. It seems like everything is geared around trying to set up Vrbata and it has become too predictable. We need more than 1-2 set plays, mix it up, and way more shots from the point. But then again if it was that easy I'd be the coach :mrgreen:
That's just one more reason to sign Sami Salo if he's interested in coming here. He's a right shooting cannon who is idea for Hank to setup as a left-handed playmaker who works off of the right-half boards.

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Boston Canucker » Sun Nov 30, 2014 8:12 am

This has been a great start, and I'm feeling more secure than with last year's team because 1) they really are rolling 4 lines, 2) Willie D will not torch the season by rushing another team's dressing room or referring to losses with lots of fights as moral victories; and 3) having the next gen like Horvat play meaningful minutes.

I still see us dropping down and battling for a 6-8 spot, but that's cool. I'd have taken that at the start of the year. More impressive is just the way they are playing, scoring. They'll work on Team D as the season moves along. Thus far, I've got no real complaints. They'll hit a bump in the road for sure, some sort of losing streak, and then we'll see how they respond. I'm more confident of how Willie D will handle it as opposed to Torts and his tantrums.

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Re: Canucks at the Quarter Point

Post by Reefer2 » Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:14 am

I want to see more consistency from the goaltending, taking out the last 2 games Miller has been adequate in net but for $6M I would expect more.

So Kesler let and everyone wondered about where his points would come from - we can say at least from the 1st QTR that Bonino has done enough to make us not miss him. Then we were worried about his PK time, well with the record the Nucks have for PK that is not a concern. FO is a concern but that is getting better.

PP - maybe time to split the twins and make PP1A and PP1B, something has to change because those 2 wont.

Yo - Overtime, you need to read the thread about quoting another poster :mrgreen:

I will say that I am surprised about how well they have done, 4 games against Oilers does help. In such a good year for the draft I didn't want to see this team sitting in 9th place come the playoffs with bandaid fixes, I didn't want to see a tank year but getting another top 10 draft pick would of been fine with me.

Then GM Benning went out, traded Kesler which was expected but also went out and got Virbata and Miller. I was not sure what that meant but will admit I didn't know why they would do that mainly because I wanted to see youth get some playing time.

Horvat up has satisfied that for me so call me a happy reef. 8-)

Topper - your being too kind, I don't think he moves a lot of hot air but I do think he rents himself out to farmers who need a little extra fertilizer. 8-)

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