Moving one of our Top 4 defenseman for a Top 6 Forward

[The Brown Knight]

I pretty much agree with everything Hockey Widow and Island Knucklehead said in response to my post.

I have nothing more to add.......for now.

[Mondi]

Of course not

The team is 10 games into the season, and they have

Daniel 2
Henrik 2
Burrows 0 (I know he's injured)
Kesler 3
Hansen 2
Higgins 2

That's a lot of top six guys on pace for 16 goal seasons.

Booth has 1, Kassian has 1 and god bless Mike Santorelli and Brad Richardson both outscoring all of our $2 million plus forwards.

I would look at trading anyone on this team for offensive help, today. No one is untouchable. Nor should they be.

However, I'd be careful asking GMMG to make any trades as his track record suggests we'd probably do something like Shinkaruk and a first for Tomas Fleischmann!

It's great to see both Santorelli and Richardson playing well above expectation. However, it's only been 10 games in the season. I assume you would not expect both of them outscoring Daniel, Henrik, and Kesler in a 82-games season, would you? Stanton, so far, has 1 goal which is more than Bieksa and Tanev. Are you expecting him to score 1 goal every 10 games from now on and outscoring Bieksa?? Perhaps Stanton can outscore Tanev .

Of course not, but I'm not really basing my assessment on merely these ten games. Most of these players were on pace for in and around these numbers last season (except for Hansen).

I mean an 1/8 of the season is surely enough to draw some conclusions?

I could ask you, are you expecting Kesler or Sedin to break out and score 33 goals or 35 over the next 72 games?

Are you expecting Hansen, Higgins, Booth or Kassian to get to 25 goals or 50 or 60 points in the same some of our secondary scorers did in years gone by (i.e. Demitra, Samulsson and Raymond)? So many apologist for a group that just hasn't been all that offensive since Boston in spring 2012. They aren't an AWFUL team or even a bad team, just not nearly as offensive as they would need to be to compete for the Cup.

Burrows and little Schroeder will certainly help.

[herb]

I mean an 1/8 of the season is surely enough to draw some conclusions?

No really if you want any relevant data. It's an incredibly long season. If you look at the underlying data for these players and the team as a whole, we are doing OK.

I love the early season for the simple fact I love to watch all of the armchair critics out there gush at the guys who rocket out of the gate and shit on those who get off to a slow start.

Dan Hamhuis only has two points this season (on pace for 16...). What the hell conclusions can we reliably make from that other than he's having a slow start?

In their most recent seasons with the Canucks, Booth, Hansen and Higgins have scored at a 23, 17 and 20 goal paces (over 82 games) respectively. I fully expect these established veteran players to score at similar paces this year.

Dank, Kesler and Higgins are currently 7th, 8th and 9th in league wide shots taken, yet neither of these guys has more than three goals. Combined, they have taken 114 shots, but have only scored seven times, which results in a pathetic shooting percentage of 6. In previous years, these three scored at around a 10% clip.

I'm a bit more concerned about Booth, Kassian and Hansen at this point as they are simply not getting enough pucks on net, but I think they will come along.

[Jovocop]

I mean an 1/8 of the season is surely enough to draw some conclusions?

No really if you want any relevant data. It's an incredibly long season. If you look at the underlying data for these players and the team as a whole, we are doing OK.

I love the early season for the simple fact I love to watch all of the armchair critics out there gush at the guys who rocket out of the gate and shit on those who get off to a slow start.

Dan Hamhuis only has two points this season (on pace for 16...). What the hell conclusions can we reliably make from that other than he's having a slow start?

In their most recent seasons with the Canucks, Booth, Hansen and Higgins have scored at a 23, 17 and 20 goal paces (over 82 games) respectively. I fully expect these established veteran players to score at similar paces this year.

Dank, Kesler and Higgins are currently 7th, 8th and 9th in league wide shots taken, yet neither of these guys has more than three goals. Combined, they have taken 114 shots, but have only scored seven times, which results in a pathetic shooting percentage of 6. In previous years, these three scored at around a 10% clip.

I'm a bit more concerned about Booth, Kassian and Hansen at this point as they are simply not getting enough pucks on net, but I think they will come along.

Thank you, Herb!

[Reefer2]

One thing that we need to be aware of is that the Nucks have played 10 games, the most of all teams except 1. This team is in a crucial X # of games in X # of nights. JT has had little to no time to work on the areas that need to be approved.

I am holding back on any comments until this team gets some proper practice time (I do reserve the right to lose it mid game once in a while)

[Mondi]

I mean an 1/8 of the season is surely enough to draw some conclusions?

No really if you want any relevant data. It's an incredibly long season. If you look at the underlying data for these players and the team as a whole, we are doing OK.

I love the early season for the simple fact I love to watch all of the armchair critics out there gush at the guys who rocket out of the gate and shit on those who get off to a slow start.

Dan Hamhuis only has two points this season (on pace for 16...). What the hell conclusions can we reliably make from that other than he's having a slow start?

In their most recent seasons with the Canucks, Booth, Hansen and Higgins have scored at a 23, 17 and 20 goal paces (over 82 games) respectively. I fully expect these established veteran players to score at similar paces this year.

Dank, Kesler and Higgins are currently 7th, 8th and 9th in league wide shots taken, yet neither of these guys has more than three goals. Combined, they have taken 114 shots, but have only scored seven times, which results in a pathetic shooting percentage of 6. In previous years, these three scored at around a 10% clip.

I'm a bit more concerned about Booth, Kassian and Hansen at this point as they are simply not getting enough pucks on net, but I think they will come along.

Your math with respect to Booth is banana sandwich, unless you're going back two years for your projection. Not to mention, said player is now a healthy scratch (being replaced by a defenseman).

I do expect Hansen and Higgins to chip between 15 and 20 goals a piece, probably not enough from bona fide second liners on a Cup contender. Unless you have a couple of other 40-goal men up front...

As for Daniel, and Kesler...they have been trending down the last couple season. In my view, 30 to 35 goals a piece will be necessary to make up fro the lack secondary scoring Vancouver did have when they were challenging for President's Trophies and indeed the Cup. They could get there, but I think the last 40+ NHL games for Daniel have yielded 6 goals. Of course, that's not a great sample size. Then again, you can work with the data you have.

As for your analysis on shots taken, that's great. But you also have look at the games and see where those shots are coming from. The long range wrister from the boards isn't exactly a high percentage shot. Even Torts was getting on the boys about not getting to the scoring areas.

I guess my point wasn't to raise the ire of all the resident homers, just that I'd be up for a hockey trade to inject some creativity in the offence outside of one Henrik Sedin (the greatest Canuck of all time).

[herb]

Your math with respect to Booth is banana sandwich, unless you're going back two years for your projection. Not to mention, said player is now a healthy scratch (being replaced by a defenseman).

Not sure why I would analyze seasons where there was very little to no data to build any conclusions off of other than he was injured the entire time. Shocking he didn't put up points when he didn't play, I know. You're right though; Booth probably won't play the rest of the year.

I do expect Hansen and Higgins to chip between 15 and 20 goals a piece, probably not enough from bona fide second liners on a Cup contender. Unless you have a couple of other 40-goal men up front...

What does a second line player on a cup contender score over 82 games? 50ish points...hey look, Saad, Stalberg and Bickell scored at similar rates with Chicago last year as Higgins and Hansen.

Pretty clear to me this team isn't built with the intention of Hansen and Higgins both being permanent fixtures on the second line. An injury to Burrows and lackluster starts to the season from Booth and Kassian (combined with a good start from Higgins) have reshuffled the deck at this point. Like I said, only 10 games in, yada yada.

As for Daniel, and Kesler...they have been trending down the last couple season. In my view, 30 to 35 goals a piece will be necessary to make up fro the lack secondary scoring Vancouver did have when they were challenging for President's Trophies and indeed the Cup. They could get there, but I think the last 40+ NHL games for Daniel have yielded 6 goals. Of course, that's not a great sample size. Then again, you can work with the data you have.

Wouldn't be a total shock if these two don't eclipse their career highs.

That said, I'd be shocked if both scored at their current rates over 82 games.

As for your analysis on shots taken, that's great. But you also have look at the games and see where those shots are coming from. The long range wrister from the boards isn't exactly a high percentage shot. Even Torts was getting on the boys about not getting to the scoring areas.

Shot difficulty is impossible to quantify. Are you suggesting these players are taking shots from different areas than they did in the past and that this trend is likely to continue for the foreseeable future? Over the long term, their shooting percentages will probably revert closer to their career averages (~10%).

I guess my point wasn't to raise the ire of all the resident homers, just that I'd be up for a hockey trade to inject some creativity in the offence outside of one Henrik Sedin (the greatest Canuck of all time).

Who wouldn't be excited for more offense? Just please don't make it at the expense of what little exciting prospect depth we have, because this is very likely a transition year and not a "go all in" year.

[Mondi]

I'll agree with the last lines of your post.

And, as if on queue, the projections shift just like that.

[dbr]

What's particularly funny about that projection is that not even twelve hours later four of the five guys you projected for (not counting Burrows for obvious reasons) are now on pace for 22 goal seasons, which is more than enough depth since clearly this team will be led offensively by 30 goal scorers Ryan Kesler, Mike Santorelli and Brad Richardson.

Can't think of too many times with three thirty goal scorers and four more twenty goal scorers, not that it matters because of how insanely premature it is to draw conclusions like this......

[JonT21]

I think seeing how the past 10 games are crucial that we know for a fact that Mike Smith will now score more goals then Kopitar, Giroux, Stepan, and Nash combined....

[Uncle dans leg]

I think seeing how the past 10 games are crucial that we know for a fact that Mike Smith will now score more goals then Kopitar, Giroux, Stepan, and Nash combined....

Why Johnny...I do believe that's the funniest thing you've ever posted!

There IS an Easter bunny, Santa Claus, Sasquatch and hope

[KeyserSoze]

Can't think of too many times with three thirty goal scorers and four more twenty goal scorers

Sweet!

not that it matters because of how insanely premature it is to draw conclusions like this......

Dammit!

I can't handle the swings of these 1/8th of a season point projections!

[Strangelove]

I guess my point wasn't to raise the ire of all the resident homers

This is a Canucks message board.

Ummm... we're supposed to be "homers".

Now, if you're trying to infer some of us are blinded by optimism, how bout you point out specific examples

... instead of these blanket "Ah you're all blind fools other than a few folks like my hero RD" posts.

Did you ever consider the possibility that YOU are blindly pessimistic?

Consider the fact you made an ass of your-insanely-premature-self in this thread over the course of a single day.

Kinda ironic considering the way you try to pass yourself off as the realist among fools, no?

Blind leading "the blind"?

No offense but for what it's worth I see you as a simple stinky disciple of the Royal Urinator.

[Mondi]

Actually I don't really care what you think SL.

Then again, you seem to respond to all of my posts.

You're so obsessed with me.

[Strangelove]

Actually I don't really care what you think SL.

Then again, you seem to respond to all of my posts.

You're so obsessed with me.

OR... you're delusional.